Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Oregon State
4–2 FBS · Pac-12 · this season
Rating
+6.1
Rank
41
Résumé
59
Projected wins
7.3▲ 4.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
1%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on ORST games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–1, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +5.3 · closer than the market 2 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
7.34–2 banked, 5 to play · preseason 3.3
Bowl (6+)79%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%
The 5 games left add 3.3 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game66%
Win conference32%
Make the CFP1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2415th
Success rate51.3%9th
Pass EPA+0.3023rd
Rush EPA+0.1345th
Explosive rate15.6%16th
Quality-drive rate61.4%18th
Points per quality drive5.38th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0147th
Success allowed40.0%61st
Pass EPA allowed+0.0165th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0347th
Explosive allowed9.5%25th
Havoc rate9.1%70th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−1.2106th
Turnover margin+340th · exp. +5.0
Field position margin−3.1 yd110th
Hidden points / game+0.8banked
Luck, wins−0.14.1 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−15.0%137th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+6.141st
Schedule played−3.5105th
Schedule remaining−0.469th
Full schedule−1.977th
Pregame expected wins2.3of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 41st · +6.1Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Oregon Stateoff +0.24 15thdef −0.01 allowed · 47th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Oregon Stateoff +0.24 15thdef −0.01 allowed · 47th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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