Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Oregon State

4–2 FBS · Pac-12 · this season
Rating
+6.1
Rank
41
Résumé
59
Projected wins
7.3▲ 4.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at HoustonHOUORST +13.1ORST +20.5L 20–3338ORST · W
Sat, Sep 129/12Texas TechTTUORST +18.2ORST +25.5L 24–3543ORST · W
Sat, Sep 199/19MontanaMontanaORST −28.6ORST −17.5W 52–1791
Sat, Sep 269/26at UTEPUTEPORST −5.4ORST −11.0W 33–778UTEP · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at Colorado StateCSUORST −6.9ORST −6.5W 56–2683ORST · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10San Diego StateSDSUORST −9.1ORST −13.5W 66–1489SDSU · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17Washington StateWSUORST −15.1ORST −18.0WSU +18.5Pass
Sat, Nov 2111/21Utah StateUSUORST −18.1—wk 12

Model on ORST games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–1, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +5.3 · closer than the market 2 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.34–2 banked, 5 to play · preseason 3.3
Bowl (6+)79%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 3.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game66%
Win conference32%
Make the CFP1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2415th
Success rate51.3%9th
Pass EPA+0.3023rd
Rush EPA+0.1345th
Explosive rate15.6%16th
Quality-drive rate61.4%18th
Points per quality drive5.38th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0147th
Success allowed40.0%61st
Pass EPA allowed+0.0165th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0347th
Explosive allowed9.5%25th
Havoc rate9.1%70th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−1.2106th
Turnover margin+340th · exp. +5.0
Field position margin−3.1 yd110th
Hidden points / game+0.8banked
Luck, wins−0.14.1 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−15.0%137th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+6.141st
Schedule played−3.5105th
Schedule remaining−0.469th
Full schedule−1.977th
Pregame expected wins2.3of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 41st · +6.1Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUORSTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Oregon Stateoff +0.24 15thdef −0.01 allowed · 47th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.