Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5in trend: High totals go under
Texas State
2–3 · Ours #72 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
29–31FinalWe had TXST 30 – SDSU 26
San Diego State
2–4 · Ours #96 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TXST 60%SDSU won
TXST 60%SDSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TXST −3.5.TXST −10oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4 · SDSU covered by 12
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.1.57.5final 60 · over by 2.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SDSU +4.5Wlost 5.5 to the close
SDSU +4.5Wlost 5.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Brad Jackson27/43 · 372 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0645th pct
- Comp %
- 62.8
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Jayden Denegal15/23 · 109 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2022nd pct
- Comp %
- 65.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Texas Stateoffense | Played like TXST +7.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSan Diego State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70th | 48.0%▼1.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.0%▲2.3 | 31st |
| 36th | −0.05▼0.18 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.05▲0.21 | 64th |
| 33rd | −0.12▼0.59 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.43 | 67th |
| 48th | +0.02▲0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.02▲0.03 | 53rd |
| 16th | 2▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.8 | 84th |
| San Diego Stateoffense | defenseTexas State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34th | 37.3%▲7.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.3%▲12.9 | 66th |
| 20th | −0.17▲0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.39 | 80th |
| 26th | −0.20▲0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.53 | 74th |
| 25th | −0.15▲0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.17 | 75th |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Texas StateTXST | San Diego StateSDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 193rd | Own 3994th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.7 pts26th | +1.1 pts76th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 100100th | 5138th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +19.389th | −19.311th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.4 pts76th | −0.7 pts14th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 192nd |
| SafetiesSafeties scored. | 199th | 049th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. SDSU +9.6: turnovers +5.2, field position +6.8, kicking +1.3, 4th downs −1.5, penalty first downs +0.8, safeties −2.9. | −9.614th | +9.687th |
Season so far
Texas State2–3 · 42nd-hardest schedule
L
at Texas7–59missed +29.5
at Texas7–59missed +29.5L
vs UTSA26–31missed −2.5
vs UTSA26–31missed −2.5W
vs North Texas49–35covered −3
vs North Texas49–35covered −3Wvs Incarnate Word63–10covered −30.5
Lat San Diego State29–31missed −10
at San Diego State29–31missed −10San Diego State2–4 · 31st-hardest schedule
Wvs Portland State53–20missed −38.5
L
at UCLA10–28missed +13.5
at UCLA10–28missed +13.5L
vs James Madison13–26missed −1.5
vs James Madison13–26missed −1.5L
at Toledo16–41missed +2.5
at Toledo16–41missed +2.5Wvs Texas State31–29covered +10
vs Texas State31–29covered +10L
at Oregon State14–66missed +14.5
at Oregon State14–66missed +14.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is