Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
AP #23Boise State
5–1 · Ours #29 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
38–31FinalWe had BOIS 27 – FRES 24
Fresno State
4–2 · Ours #58 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.BOIS 58%BOIS won
BOIS 58%BOIS wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at BOIS −7.5.BOIS −9.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3.1 · FRES covered by 2.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.2.48.5final 69 · over by 20.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.FRES +6Llost 3.5 to the close
FRES +6Llost 3.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Maddux Madsen23/34 · 238 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5184th pct
- Comp %
- 67.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Jayden Mandal19/33 · 218 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2866th pct
- Comp %
- 57.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Boise Stateoffense | Played like FRES +1.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseFresno State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66th | 46.8%▲1.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.8%▼5.1 | 34th |
| 88th | +0.38▲0.23 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.38▼0.43 | 12th |
| 86th | +0.51▲0.31 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.51▼0.59 | 14th |
| 83rd | +0.29▲0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.32 | 17th |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼2.0 | 21st |
| Fresno Stateoffense | defenseBoise State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73rd | 49.0%▲10.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 49.0%▼11.0 | 27th |
| 87th | +0.38▲0.34 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.38▼0.39 | 13th |
| 81st | +0.42▲0.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.42▼0.46 | 19th |
| 81st | +0.27▲0.41 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.25 | 19th |
| 79th | 0▲0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Boise StateBOIS | Fresno StateFRES | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2417th | Own 2850th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +2.7 pts98th | +1.1 pts76th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7996th | 5139th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −6.332nd | +6.368th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.6 pts99th | 0.0 pts51st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. FRES +0.7: field position +1.6, kicking −1.2, 4th downs −2.1, penalty first downs +2.3. | −0.747th | +0.753rd |
Season so far
Boise State5–1 · 52nd-hardest schedule
L
at Oregon27–34covered +25
at Oregon27–34covered +25W
vs Memphis38–20covered −9
vs Memphis38–20covered −9Wvs South Dakota38–24missed −27.5
W
at Western Michigan32–7covered −8.5
at Western Michigan32–7covered −8.5W
vs Utah State37–18missed −19.5
vs Utah State37–18missed −19.5Wat Fresno State38–31missed −9.5
at Fresno State38–31missed −9.5Fresno State4–2 · 116th-hardest schedule
L
at USC0–39missed +21.5
at USC0–39missed +21.5W
vs Sacramento State49–3covered −17.5
vs Sacramento State49–3covered −17.5W
at San José State26–10covered −4.5
at San José State26–10covered −4.5W
vs Rice38–24covered −13
vs Rice38–24covered −13W
at Washington State26–6covered +2
at Washington State26–6covered +2Lvs Boise State31–38covered +9.5
vs Boise State31–38covered +9.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is