Board · Sat, Oct 17 · 10:30 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
Fresno State
4–2 · Ours #57Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
28–22Our projected score
San Diego State
2–4 · Ours #106Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.FRES 65%
FRES 65%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.FRES −7.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.2 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −9.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.46.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 49.7 · opened 43.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.SDSU +7.5-110 FanDuel51% to cover · -3.4% EV
SDSU +7.5-110 FanDuel51% to cover · -3.4% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Jayden MandalJunior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.2244th
- Comp %
- 64.3
- TD
- 8
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
Jayden DenegalSenior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.16128th
- Comp %
- 53.6
- TD
- 6
- Turnovers
- 55 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 7
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| San Diego Stateoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseFresno State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 132nd | −0.11 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.04 | 72nd |
| 137th | 32.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 41.8% | 78th |
| 127th | −0.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.06 | 40th |
| 126th | −0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.15 | 111th |
| 132nd | 9.0% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 11.3% | 63rd |
| Fresno Stateoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseSan Diego State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58th | +0.12 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.07 | 91st |
| 93rd | 41.3% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 48.2% | 131st |
| 29th | +0.27 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.14 | 99th |
| 115th | −0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | 0.00 | 61st |
| 38th | 14.2% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 11.2% | 58th |
Team stats
| San Diego StateSDSU | Fresno StateFRES | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +1.840th | +1.838th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −2.5103rd | +13.32nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 39%126th | 52%68th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.44105th | 4.0075th |
| Time of possession | 24:12127th | 25:42119th |
| Plays per game | 60121st | 60122nd |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +1 | +8 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 8 – 9 | 4 – 12 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 6.1%126th | 9.9%50th |
Season so far
Fresno State4–2 · 115th-hardest schedule
L
at USC0–39missed +21.5
at USC0–39missed +21.5W
vs Sacramento State49–3covered −17.5
vs Sacramento State49–3covered −17.5W
at San José State26–10covered −4.5
at San José State26–10covered −4.5W
vs Rice38–24covered −13
vs Rice38–24covered −13W
at Washington State26–6covered +2
at Washington State26–6covered +2L
vs Boise State31–38covered +9.5
vs Boise State31–38covered +9.5San Diego State2–4 · 31st-hardest schedule
Wvs Portland State53–20missed −38.5
L
at UCLA10–28missed +13.5
at UCLA10–28missed +13.5L
vs James Madison13–26missed −1.5
vs James Madison13–26missed −1.5L
at Toledo16–41missed +2.5
at Toledo16–41missed +2.5W
vs Texas State31–29covered +10
vs Texas State31–29covered +10L
at Oregon State14–66missed +14.5
at Oregon State14–66missed +14.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is