Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Fresno State
4–2 · Ours #65 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
26–6FinalWe had FRES 22 – WSU 23
Washington State
1–5 · Ours #89 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.WSU 51%FRES won
WSU 51%FRES wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at WSU −1.5.WSU −2oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −0.5 · FRES covered by 22
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 44.9.45final 32 · under by 13
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.FRES +2.5Wbeat the close by 0.5
FRES +2.5Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Jayden Mandal24/33 · 245 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1251st pct
- Comp %
- 72.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Caden Pinnick21/34 · 152 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.593rd pct
- Comp %
- 61.8
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Fresno Stateoffense | Played like FRES +20.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseWashington State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45th | 40.3%▼0.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.3%▲1.4 | 55th |
| 38th | −0.03▼0.15 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.04 | 62nd |
| 55th | +0.12▼0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.09 | 45th |
| 20th | −0.19▼0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.19▲0.16 | 80th |
| 79th | 0▲0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
| Washington Stateoffense | defenseFresno State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6th | 24.6%▼5.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 24.6%▲21.6 | 94th |
| 4th | −0.44▼0.28 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.44▲0.56 | 96th |
| 5th | −0.59▼0.34 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.59▲0.72 | 95th |
| 28th | −0.13▼0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.18 | 72nd |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.8 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Fresno StateFRES | Washington StateWSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 4298th | Own 216th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.4 pts84th | +1.8 pts92nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6777th | 5750th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +17.687th | −17.613th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | −0.8 pts12th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. FRES +10.7: turnovers +2.6, field position +7.4, kicking −0.3, 4th downs +1.0. | +10.791st | −10.79th |
Season so far
Fresno State4–2 · 115th-hardest schedule
L
at USC0–39missed +21.5
at USC0–39missed +21.5W
vs Sacramento State49–3covered −17.5
vs Sacramento State49–3covered −17.5W
at San José State26–10covered −4.5
at San José State26–10covered −4.5W
vs Rice38–24covered −13
vs Rice38–24covered −13Wat Washington State26–6covered +2
at Washington State26–6covered +2L
vs Boise State31–38covered +9.5
vs Boise State31–38covered +9.5Washington State1–5 · 47th-hardest schedule
L
at Washington10–24covered +24
at Washington10–24covered +24L
at Kansas State7–34missed +17.5
at Kansas State7–34missed +17.5Wvs Duquesne48–7covered −38.5
L
vs Arizona24–34covered +10.5
vs Arizona24–34covered +10.5Lvs Fresno State6–26missed −2
vs Fresno State6–26missed −2L
at Utah State16–17covered +4
at Utah State16–17covered +4Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is