Board · Thu, Oct 15 · 8:00 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
Colorado State
2–3 · Ours #118Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
23–42Our projected score
Texas State
2–3 · Ours #71Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.TXST 88%
TXST 88%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.TXST −14.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −19.2 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −12.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.70oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 65.5 · opened 67.5
Our call · LeanCollege: our number and the price say the side is worth more than the vig, but the record at these lines is a coin flip, so it is a lean, not a play.TXST −14.0-115 DraftKings54% to cover · +1.0% EV
TXST −14.0-115 DraftKings54% to cover · +1.0% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Ksaan Farrar3 starts this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0194th
- Comp %
- 61.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Brad JacksonSophomore · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.3418th
- Comp %
- 67.2
- TD
- 13
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Texas Stateoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseColorado State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34th | +0.18 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.30 | 137th |
| 16th | 49.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 53.6% | 138th |
| 14th | +0.35 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.30 | 131st |
| 82nd | +0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.29 | 137th |
| 28th | 14.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 16.7% | 136th |
| Colorado Stateoffense | Offense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseTexas State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20th | +0.22 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.13 | 111th |
| 48th | 45.8% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 45.9% | 117th |
| 27th | +0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.24 | 122nd |
| 37th | +0.15 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.05 | 36th |
| 97th | 11.7% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 12.5% | 90th |
Team stats
| Texas StateTXST | Colorado StateCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −5.6136th | −0.697th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −3.2113th | +0.469th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 58%38th | 47%91st |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.9083rd | 4.2459th |
| Time of possession | 30:4235th | 25:42120th |
| Plays per game | 774th | 6939th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −8 | +7 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 13 – 5 | 5 – 12 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 6.9%115th | 9.5%61st |
Season so far
Colorado State2–3 · 53rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Wyoming35–13covered −3
vs Wyoming35–13covered −3Wvs Southern Utah58–24covered −20
L
vs BYU23–41missed +17.5QB change mid-game
vs BYU23–41missed +17.5QB change mid-gameL
at UTSA45–59push +14
at UTSA45–59push +14L
vs Oregon State26–56missed +7
vs Oregon State26–56missed +7Texas State2–3 · 42nd-hardest schedule
L
at Texas7–59missed +29.5
at Texas7–59missed +29.5Lvs UTSA26–31missed −2.5
vs UTSA26–31missed −2.5W
vs North Texas49–35covered −3
vs North Texas49–35covered −3Wvs Incarnate Word63–10covered −30.5
L
at San Diego State29–31missed −10
at San Diego State29–31missed −10Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is