Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
UConn
3–3 · Ours #67 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
34–20FinalWe had CONN 28 – TEM 32
Temple
2–4 · Ours #82 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TEM 60%CONN won
TEM 60%CONN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TEM −3.TEM −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4.1 · CONN covered by 17.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 59.8.55.5final 54 · under by 1.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TEM −3.5Lmatched the close
TEM −3.5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Kalieb Osborne17/24 · 257 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3774th pct
- Comp %
- 70.8
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Ajani Sheppard19/25 · 260 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2563rd pct
- Comp %
- 76.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UConnoffense | Played like CONN +6.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTemple | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85th | 53.2%▲11.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 53.2%▼8.4 | 15th |
| 87th | +0.36▲0.25 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.36▼0.20 | 14th |
| 78th | +0.37▲0.29 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.37▼0.05 | 22nd |
| 89th | +0.36▲0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.36▼0.30 | 11th |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.3 | 21st |
| Templeoffense | defenseUConn | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74th | 49.2%▲9.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 49.2%▼4.5 | 26th |
| 72nd | +0.21▲0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.14 | 28th |
| 60th | +0.17▲0.20 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.17▲0.01 | 40th |
| 80th | +0.26▲0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.32 | 20th |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UConnCONN | TempleTEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2743rd | Own 2315th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.5 pts58th | +0.6 pts63rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6264th | 5956th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +7.772nd | −7.729th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.1 pts61st | 0.0 pts51st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. CONN +6.7: turnovers +5.2, field position +1.4, kicking −0.1, 4th downs +0.1. | +6.779th | −6.721st |
Season so far
UConn3–3 · 114th-hardest schedule
Wvs Lafayette56–7covered −21
L
vs Maryland14–38missed +11.5
vs Maryland14–38missed +11.5W
at Southern Miss48–20covered −3
at Southern Miss48–20covered −3L
at Miami (OH)21–24missed +2.5
at Miami (OH)21–24missed +2.5L
vs Syracuse41–42covered +6.5
vs Syracuse41–42covered +6.5Wat Temple34–20covered +3.5
at Temple34–20covered +3.5Temple2–4 · 67th-hardest schedule
Wvs Rhode Island38–14covered −14.5
L
vs Penn State9–27covered +24
vs Penn State9–27covered +24L
at Toledo48–49covered +5
at Toledo48–49covered +5L
vs Army17–21missed +3.5
vs Army17–21missed +3.5W
at South Florida17–13covered +5.5
at South Florida17–13covered +5.5Lvs UConn20–34missed −3.5
vs UConn20–34missed −3.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is