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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Temple

2–4 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
−5.4
Rank
96
Résumé
120
Projected wins
5.3▲ 1.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Rhode IslandRhode IslandTEM −27.4TEM −14.5W 38–1458
Sat, Sep 129/12Penn StatePSUTEM +21.1TEM +23.5L 9–2731TEM · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at ToledoTOLTEM +11.3TEM +4.0L 48–4942TOL · L
Fri, Sep 259/25ArmyARMYTEM −2.5TEM +3.0L 17–2151TEM · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at South FloridaUSFTEM +7.6TEM +6.5W 17–1356USF · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10UConnCONNTEM −4.1TEM −3.5L 20–3443TEM · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17CharlotteCLTTEM −22.4TEM −21.0TEM −21.5Pass
Sat, Oct 3110/31at East CarolinaECUTEM +4.9—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at NavyNAVYTEM +4.0—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14UABUABTEM −8.8—wk 11
Thu, Nov 1911/19RiceRICETEM −6.4—wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27at MemphisMEMTEM +9.3—wk 13

Model on TEM games: 1–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–3 · as the dog 1–1 · home 1–4, away 0–0 · avg gap to the market +3.6 · closer than the market 1 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.32–4 banked, 6 to play · preseason 4.2
Bowl (6+)17%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 3.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game6%
Win conference2%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1446th
Success rate43.3%67th
Pass EPA+0.0584th
Rush EPA+0.2021st
Explosive rate13.8%48th
Quality-drive rate54.4%57th
Points per quality drive3.4107th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.20128th
Success allowed45.2%112th
Pass EPA allowed+0.28127th
Rush EPA allowed+0.12108th
Explosive allowed13.8%108th
Havoc rate5.5%136th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−1.7110th
Turnover margin−294th · exp. +1.0
Field position margin−3.3 yd116th
Hidden points / game−3.2gave up
Luck, wins−0.32.3 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected+9.0%10th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−5.496th
Schedule played+0.367th
Schedule remaining−8.1113th
Full schedule−4.393rd
Pregame expected wins2.7of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 96th · −5.4Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUTEMgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Templeoff +0.14 46thdef +0.20 allowed · 128th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.