Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

UConn
3–3 FBS · FBS Independents · this season
Rating
+1.9
Rank
59
Résumé
105
Projected wins
6.7▲ 0.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on CONN games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–3, away 1–0 · avg gap to the market +8.7 · closer than the market 0 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
6.73–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 6.3
Bowl (6+)59%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%
The 6 games left add 3.7 expected wins.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2223rd
Success rate45.3%51st
Pass EPA+0.1646th
Rush EPA+0.275th
Explosive rate16.3%11th
Quality-drive rate59.0%25th
Points per quality drive4.636th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0685th
Success allowed43.6%96th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1194th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0154th
Explosive allowed10.1%36th
Havoc rate8.8%77th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.151st
Turnover margin+249th · exp. −0.5
Field position margin+3.3 yd41st
Hidden points / game+0.3banked
Luck, wins−1.04.0 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 5–1
Rush rate over expected−0.7%62nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+1.959th
Schedule played−4.9115th
Schedule remaining−4.182nd
Full schedule−4.494th
Pregame expected wins2.5of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 59th · +1.9Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
UConnoff +0.22 23rddef +0.06 allowed · 85th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
UConnoff +0.22 23rddef +0.06 allowed · 85th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.

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