Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

UConn

3–3 FBS · FBS Independents · this season
Rating
+1.9
Rank
59
Résumé
105
Projected wins
6.7▲ 0.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5LafayetteLafayetteCONN −27.1CONN −21.0W 56–794
Sat, Sep 129/12MarylandMDCONN −4.7CONN +13.0L 14–3827CONN · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at Southern MissUSMCONN +2.5CONN −3.5W 48–2076USM · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at Miami (OH)M-OHCONN −4.8CONN +5.5L 21–2447CONN · W
Sat, Oct 310/3SyracuseSYRCONN −7.5CONN +6.5L 41–4262CONN · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at TempleTEMCONN +4.1CONN +3.5W 34–2057TEM · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31at Air ForceAFCONN +1.4—wk 9
Sat, Nov 2811/28at WyomingWYOCONN −8.1—wk 13

Model on CONN games: 2–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–3, away 1–0 · avg gap to the market +8.7 · closer than the market 0 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.73–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 6.3
Bowl (6+)59%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 3.7 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2223rd
Success rate45.3%51st
Pass EPA+0.1646th
Rush EPA+0.275th
Explosive rate16.3%11th
Quality-drive rate59.0%25th
Points per quality drive4.636th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0685th
Success allowed43.6%96th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1194th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0154th
Explosive allowed10.1%36th
Havoc rate8.8%77th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.151st
Turnover margin+249th · exp. −0.5
Field position margin+3.3 yd41st
Hidden points / game+0.3banked
Luck, wins−1.04.0 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 5–1
Rush rate over expected−0.7%62nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+1.959th
Schedule played−4.9115th
Schedule remaining−4.182nd
Full schedule−4.494th
Pregame expected wins2.5of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 59th · +1.9Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUCONNgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
UConnoff +0.22 23rddef +0.06 allowed · 85th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.