Week 0 report · Sat, Aug 29 · 2026 Week 1in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
Memphis
5–1 · Ours #51 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–21FinalWe had MEM 27 – UNLV 33
UNLV
4–2 · Ours #52 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UNLV 66%MEM won
UNLV 66%MEM wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UNLV −5.5.UNLV −5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.5 · MEM covered by 11
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 59.8.55.5final 48 · under by 7.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MEM +5.5Wbeat the close by 0.5
MEM +5.5Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Marcus Stokes15/26 · 223 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1251st pct
- Comp %
- 57.7
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Jackson Arnold25/38 · 291 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0633rd pct
- Comp %
- 65.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Memphisoffense | Played like MEM +5.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUNLV | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64th | 45.8%▼3.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.8%▼8.1 | 36th |
| 64th | +0.16▼0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.26 | 36th |
| 55th | +0.12▼0.26 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.22 | 45th |
| 71st | +0.19▲0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.30 | 29th |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.8 | 59th |
| UNLVoffense | defenseMemphis | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26th | 34.6%▼2.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.6%▲7.4 | 74th |
| 54th | +0.08▲0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.08▼0.02 | 46th |
| 37th | −0.06▼0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.06▼0.20 | 63rd |
| 80th | +0.26▲0.32 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.26▲0.06 | 21st |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| MemphisMEM | UNLVUNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2314th | Own 2529th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.1 pts76th | −2.5 pts5th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5956th | 7895th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +10.477th | −10.423rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | 0.0 pts41st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MEM +0.7: turnovers −2.6, field position −0.8, kicking +2.5, penalty first downs +1.5. | +0.753rd | −0.747th |
Season so far
Memphis5–1 · 124th-hardest schedule
Wat UNLV27–21covered +5
at UNLV27–21covered +5W
vs Arkansas State42–24covered −11
vs Arkansas State42–24covered −11L
at Boise State20–38missed +9
at Boise State20–38missed +9Wvs UT Martin45–21missed −33.5
W
at Charlotte59–8covered −20.5
at Charlotte59–8covered −20.5W
vs UAB38–13covered −14.5
vs UAB38–13covered −14.5UNLV4–2 · 108th-hardest schedule
Lvs Memphis21–27missed −5
vs Memphis21–27missed −5W
at Hawai'i21–6covered −2.5
at Hawai'i21–6covered −2.5L
at North Texas6–44missed −3
at North Texas6–44missed −3W
at Akron38–10covered −13.5
at Akron38–10covered −13.5W
vs California39–31covered −1
vs California39–31covered −1W
vs North Dakota State13–7covered +2.5
vs North Dakota State13–7covered +2.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Aug 29, 9:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is