Board · Sat, Aug 29 · 10:00 PM ET · Week 0
at
Our call
No priceMEM +4.0 · covers 49.8% · neither book is on our number, so this bet has no priced EVPreseason modelNo 2026 games are in the book yet. This line starts from last season and the offseason evidence shown below.
Spread
Our lineUNLV −3.6
MarketUNLV −4as of Aug 28, 12:05 PM EDT
Pick
MEM +4no DK/FD price
MEM +4no DK/FD priceUNLV wins by 4 or more in 50% of the games we simulate.
Total
Our total59.8
Market56.5as of Aug 28, 12:05 PM EDT
PickOver 56.5-110
The game clears 56.5 in 49% of the games we simulate.
Win probability
Memphis 41%UNLV 59%
Shape of the game
Margin
UNLV by 4+50%Points
Over 56.549%
Line movement
 | | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | O/U | Spread | O/U | |
| Tue Aug 1111:29PM | −6 | — | −5.5 | — |
| Fri Aug 149:24PM | −6 | 57.5 | −5.5 | 57.5 |
| Fri Aug 219:05AM | −5.5 | 56.5 | −5.5 | 57.5 |
| Sat Aug 229:05AM | −5.5 | 57.5 | −5.5 | 57.5 |
| Tue Aug 257:05AM | −5.5 | 56.5 | −5.5 | 56.5 |
| Wed Aug 267:05AM | −4.5 | 56.5 | −4.5 | 56.5 |
| Fri Aug 2812:05PM | −4.5 | 56.5 | −4.5 | 56.5 |
First pull, latest pull, and every pull where DraftKings or FanDuel moved — unchanged pulls are not repeated. Times ET; a snapshot cadence, not a live price.
UNLV is the favourite, so the minus number is theirs. The line has come 1.5 points toward our −3.6.
The rosters
what the early-season model weighsMEMUNLV2025 season7–5 · +4.19–4 · +2.7
Roster talent63366th485109th
Portal net stars+1719th+246th
Recruiting class18972nd19663rd
Roster talent is weighted trailing recruiting classes until this year's talent composite publishes. Portal counts moves through Aug 15. Ranks are FBS-wide.
Prediction by cfb_best at code revision 7ebdce4, run Aug 28, 12:05 PM EDT on 9,503 training games. Once a game kicks off the numbers freeze and grade as-is.