Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

UNLV

4–2 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
−0.1
Rank
64
Résumé
45
Projected wins
7.5▼ 0.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29MemphisMEMUNLV −6.5UNLV −5.5L 21–2745MEM · W
Sat, Sep 59/5at Hawai'iHAWUNLV −6.5UNLV −3.0W 21–658UNLV · W
Sat, Sep 129/12at North TexasUNTUNLV +1.8UNLV −5.0L 6–4429UNT · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at AkronAKRUNLV −13.2UNLV −14.0W 38–1075AKR · L
Sat, Oct 310/3CaliforniaCALUNLV −8.5UNLV −2.5W 39–3156UNLV · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10North Dakota StateNDSUUNLV +6.5UNLV +3.5W 13–752NDSU · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Air ForceAFUNLV +2.6UNLV PKAF +1.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7WyomingWYOUNLV −10.6—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at New MexicoUNMUNLV +16.0—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2811/28NevadaNEVUNLV −4.6—wk 13

Model on UNLV games: 4–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 2–1 · home 2–1, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +3.7 · closer than the market 3 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.54–2 banked, 6 to play · preseason 7.7
Bowl (6+)95%
9+ wins19%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 3.5 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game47%
Win conference17%
Make the CFP1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.01108th
Success rate36.5%126th
Pass EPA−0.01103rd
Rush EPA−0.00101st
Explosive rate11.8%95th
Quality-drive rate40.3%119th
Points per quality drive3.3111th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0730th
Success allowed38.1%41st
Pass EPA allowed−0.0935th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0634th
Explosive allowed14.0%114th
Havoc rate9.0%72nd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.566th
Turnover margin+87th · exp. +5.0
Field position margin+3.8 yd36th
Hidden points / game+4.5banked
Luck, wins+0.53.5 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected+5.7%18th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−0.164th
Schedule played−3.8108th
Schedule remaining−7.2107th
Full schedule−5.5108th
Pregame expected wins3.1of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 64th · −0.1Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUNLVgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
UNLVoff −0.01 108thdef −0.07 allowed · 30th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.