Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
South Florida
4–2 · Ours #40 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
28–24FinalWe had USF 35 – ARMY 21
Army
3–2 · Ours #93 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.USF 81%USF won
USF 81%USF wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ARMY −3.ARMY −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +14.2 · USF covered by 7.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.3.45.5final 52 · over by 6.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.USF +3Wlost 0.5 to the close
USF +3Wlost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Michael Van Buren Jr.1/1 · 38 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +6.25
- Comp %
- 100.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Cale Hellums9/10 · 91 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.7895th pct
- Comp %
- 90.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| South Floridaoffense | Played like USF +6.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseArmy | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84th | 52.7%▲10.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.7%▼9.5 | 16th |
| 83rd | +0.33▲0.35 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.10 | 17th |
| 80th | +0.40▲0.57 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.40▼0.14 | 20th |
| 78th | +0.24▲0.22 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.02 | 22nd |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.3 | 21st |
| Armyoffense | defenseSouth Florida | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81st | 51.6%▲2.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 51.6%▼11.8 | 20th |
| 64th | +0.16▼0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.23 | 36th |
| 98th | +0.94▲0.79 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.94▼1.05 | 2nd |
| 41st | −0.02▼0.27 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.02▼0.02 | 59th |
| 41st | 1▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| South FloridaUSF | ArmyARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2523rd | Own 2743rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +0.3 pts54th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5546th | 6264th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +11.379th | −11.321st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.6 pts85th | +0.7 pts87th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. USF +0.5: turnovers +2.6, field position −1.0, kicking −0.2, 4th downs −0.1, penalty first downs −0.8. | +0.552nd | −0.548th |
Season so far
South Florida4–2 · 118th-hardest schedule
W
vs Florida International19–9missed −14.5
vs Florida International19–9missed −14.5Wat Army28–24covered +3.5
at Army28–24covered +3.5Wvs Delaware State59–17covered −36.5
W
at Bowling Green14–6missed −18.5
at Bowling Green14–6missed −18.5L
vs Temple13–17missed −5.5
vs Temple13–17missed −5.5L
at UTSA24–31missed +6
at UTSA24–31missed +6Army3–2 · 107th-hardest schedule
Wvs Bryant59–3covered −36.5
Lvs South Florida24–28missed −3.5
vs South Florida24–28missed −3.5Wat Temple21–17covered −3.5
at Temple21–17covered −3.5L
at Louisiana Tech29–31missed +1
at Louisiana Tech29–31missed +1W
vs Tulane20–17missed −4
vs Tulane20–17missed −4Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is