Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Army
3–2 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
−4.2
Rank
88
Résumé
82
Projected wins
7.0▲ 1.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on ARMY games: 2–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 2–1 · home 1–2, away 1–0 · avg gap to the market +6.7 · closer than the market 0 of 4
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
7.03–2 banked, 7 to play · preseason 6.0
Bowl (6+)63%
9+ wins3%
11+ wins0%
The 7 games left add 4.0 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game15%
Win conference6%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
5 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2512th
Success rate51.5%8th
Pass EPA+0.2825th
Rush EPA+0.248th
Explosive rate12.8%69th
Quality-drive rate64.3%9th
Points per quality drive4.358th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.21131st
Success allowed43.9%100th
Pass EPA allowed+0.25123rd
Rush EPA allowed+0.16121st
Explosive allowed15.4%130th
Havoc rate6.1%126th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.545th
Turnover margin−179th · exp. 0.0
Field position margin+1.0 yd62nd
Hidden points / game+2.3banked
Luck, wins−0.23.2 earned
One-score record2–2flipped 3–2
Rush rate over expected+26.5%2nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−4.288th
Schedule played−3.8107th
Schedule remaining−4.081st
Full schedule−3.989th
Pregame expected wins2.7of 5
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 88th · −4.2Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Armyoff +0.25 12thdef +0.21 allowed · 131st
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Armyoff +0.25 12thdef +0.21 allowed · 131st
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.

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