Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Army

3–2 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
−4.2
Rank
88
Résumé
82
Projected wins
7.0▲ 1.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5BryantBryantARMY −29.2ARMY −36.5W 59–387
Sat, Sep 129/12South FloridaUSFARMY +14.2ARMY −3.0L 24–2841USF · W
Fri, Sep 259/25at TempleTEMARMY +2.5ARMY −3.0W 21–1749TEM · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at Louisiana TechLTARMY PKARMY −2.0L 29–3144LT · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10TulaneTULNARMY −6.5ARMY −3.5W 20–1760ARMY · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17Florida AtlanticFAUARMY −3.6ARMY −2.5ARMY −2.5Pass
Fri, Oct 2310/23at TulsaTLSAARMY −2.1—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31at MemphisMEMARMY +5.4—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7Air ForceAFARMY −8.3—wk 10
Sat, Nov 2811/28at RiceRICEARMY −5.9—wk 13
Sat, Dec 1212/12NavyNAVYARMY −1.2ARMY +2.5wk 15

Model on ARMY games: 2–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 2–1 · home 1–2, away 1–0 · avg gap to the market +6.7 · closer than the market 0 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.03–2 banked, 7 to play · preseason 6.0
Bowl (6+)63%
9+ wins3%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 4.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game15%
Win conference6%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2512th
Success rate51.5%8th
Pass EPA+0.2825th
Rush EPA+0.248th
Explosive rate12.8%69th
Quality-drive rate64.3%9th
Points per quality drive4.358th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.21131st
Success allowed43.9%100th
Pass EPA allowed+0.25123rd
Rush EPA allowed+0.16121st
Explosive allowed15.4%130th
Havoc rate6.1%126th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.545th
Turnover margin−179th · exp. 0.0
Field position margin+1.0 yd62nd
Hidden points / game+2.3banked
Luck, wins−0.23.2 earned
One-score record2–2flipped 3–2
Rush rate over expected+26.5%2nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−4.288th
Schedule played−3.8107th
Schedule remaining−4.081st
Full schedule−3.989th
Pregame expected wins2.7of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 88th · −4.2Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeSouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUARMYgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Armyoff +0.25 12thdef +0.21 allowed · 131st

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.