2026 preseasonRating and rank begin with last season's strength. The record, résumé, and team-performance report start fresh when games are played.View South Florida's 2025 final page
Projected wins · our pregame odds for every game left
8.5projected wins · 12 games
Bowl (6+)92%
9+ wins57%
11+ wins15%
Preseason odds: every line starts from last season and offseason inputs, so this moves most in September. Bands come from the playoff simulation, which carries team-quality uncertainty — early-season spread is honestly wide.
Scoreboard watch: root for Alabama over East Carolina — swings a CFP bid between 23% and 27%.
Simulated from our pregame win probability for every remaining game; the CFP field is picked by a committee stand-in, so treat those odds as model-derived. Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Luck & what-ifs
2025 final
One-score record
1–2
decided by 8 or fewer
Wins vs expected
+1.2
8–4 vs 6.8
One-score games flipped
9–3
what-if record
Turnover margin
+5
expected +8.0
Luck: +0.2 wins versus the record their play deserved. Banked wins keep; the pace is what regresses.
ConjPWR profile
2025 final · 27th · +9.4 pts vs avg
What repeats — the ratingvs averagepts / game
Offense efficiency+2.425th
Offense play value+3.226th
Defense efficiency+2.227th
Defense play value+1.545th
Drive finishing+0.349th
Field position−0.271st
What doesn't — luckvs averagepts / game
Ball security−0.080th
Third-down conversion−0.080th
Points per game vs an average team, opponent-adjusted and weighted by how much the factor repeats — the tagged luck factors are already discounted to near zero. Luck added −0.0 pts/game to results; in CFB that pace regresses.
Hidden game
special teams · disruption · style
Special teams EPA / game
−0.4
77th
Havoc rate
11.3%
49th
Rush rate over expected
−1.8%
78th · pass-leaning
The pieces the ConjPWR factors don't cover: kicking-game value, defensive disruption, and run/pass lean (style, not quality).
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom
South Floridaoff +0.16 16thdef −0.05 28th
Every FBS team, 2025 final. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Pick record · our line vs the close
3–9against the closing line
Pick was the favorite1–4
Pick was the dog2–5
Home / away side3–4 / 0–5
Average gap to the close+5.1 pts
Our line beat the close3 of 12
Graded against the closing line, not the open. A push counts as neither.
Schedule strength
opponent rating, points vs average
Avg opponentFBS rank
Played−0.374th
Full season−0.374th
Upcoming
our line · the market · play or pass at a DK/FD price
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