Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
UNLV
4–2 · Ours #51 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
6–44FinalWe had UNLV 30 – UNT 32
North Texas
4–2 · Ours #67 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UNT 54%UNT won
UNT 54%UNT wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UNLV −5.5.UNLV −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +1.8 · UNT covered by 41
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 61.8.58final 50 · under by 8
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UNT +5Wbeat the close by 2.0
UNT +5Wbeat the close by 2.0Quarterbacksthis game
Jackson Arnold18/28 · 194 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1129th pct
- Comp %
- 64.3
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Tayven Jackson14/25 · 217 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2362nd pct
- Comp %
- 56.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UNLVoffense | Played like UNT +18.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNorth Texas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21st | 32.6%▼4.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.6%▲12.7 | 79th |
| 16th | −0.20▼0.23 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.41 | 84th |
| 40th | −0.04▲0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.53 | 61st |
| 8th | −0.37▼0.43 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.37▲0.42 | 92nd |
| 16th | 2▼1.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.5 | 84th |
| North Texasoffense | defenseUNLV | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63rd | 45.5% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.5%▼7.8 | 37th |
| 59th | +0.12▼0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.21 | 42nd |
| 67th | +0.24▼0.25 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.36 | 33rd |
| 49th | +0.02▼0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.02▼0.10 | 52nd |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼2.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UNLVUNLV | North TexasUNT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2953rd | Own 3584th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.5 pts85th | +1.7 pts89th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4631st | 4427th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −21.29th | +21.291st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.9 pts10th | 0.0 pts51st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UNT +11.2: turnovers +7.8, field position +2.1, kicking +0.1, 4th downs +1.1. | −11.28th | +11.292nd |
Season so far
UNLV4–2 · 108th-hardest schedule
L
vs Memphis21–27missed −5
vs Memphis21–27missed −5W
at Hawai'i21–6covered −2.5
at Hawai'i21–6covered −2.5Lat North Texas6–44missed −3
at North Texas6–44missed −3W
at Akron38–10covered −13.5
at Akron38–10covered −13.5W
vs California39–31covered −1
vs California39–31covered −1W
vs North Dakota State13–7covered +2.5
vs North Dakota State13–7covered +2.5North Texas4–2 · 91st-hardest schedule
L
at Indiana16–52covered +40
at Indiana16–52covered +40Wvs UNLV44–6covered +3
vs UNLV44–6covered +3L
at Texas State35–49missed +3
at Texas State35–49missed +3Wvs Houston Christian63–14covered −38.5
W
at Tulsa45–44missed −2.5
at Tulsa45–44missed −2.5W
vs Charlotte50–10covered −28
vs Charlotte50–10covered −28Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is