Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
UL Monroe
0–5 · Ours #138 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–26FinalWe had ULM 20 – UAB 38
UAB
3–3 · Ours #119 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UAB 85%UAB won
UAB 85%UAB wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UAB −10.UAB −9.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −17.6 · ULM covered by 3.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.9.53.5final 46 · under by 7.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UAB −10.5Llost 1.0 to the close
UAB −10.5Llost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Austin Carlisle10/20 · 56 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3411th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Ryder Burton8/16 · 115 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2518th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UL Monroeoffense | Played like UAB +14.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUAB | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59th | 44.4%▲8.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.4%▲3.7 | 41st |
| 28th | −0.10▼0.23 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.28 | 72nd |
| 15th | −0.34▼0.52 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.34▲0.36 | 85th |
| 49th | +0.03▼0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.19 | 51st |
| 41st | 1▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.8 | 59th |
| UABoffense | defenseUL Monroe | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80th | 51.5%▲12.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 51.5%▲2.6 | 20th |
| 66th | +0.17▲0.15 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.17▲0.17 | 34th |
| 22nd | −0.25▼0.22 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.25▲0.91 | 78th |
| 87th | +0.33▲0.30 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.19 | 13th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲1.0 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UL MonroeULM | UABUAB | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3994th | Own 2957th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.8 pts68th | +3.2 pts99th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6367th | 6880th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −10.523rd | +10.577th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 371st | 05th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.9 pts10th | −0.5 pts23rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ULM +3.4: field position +3.3, kicking −1.8, 4th downs −0.5, penalty first downs +2.3. | +3.467th | −3.433rd |
Season so far
UL Monroe0–5 · 93rd-hardest schedule
L
at Mississippi State13–62missed +28.5
at Mississippi State13–62missed +28.5Lat UAB20–26covered +9.5
at UAB20–26covered +9.5Lvs SE Louisiana35–38missed −9.5
L
vs Florida Atlantic17–45missed +11.5
vs Florida Atlantic17–45missed +11.5L
at South Alabama35–52missed +13.5
at South Alabama35–52missed +13.5UAB3–3 · 112th-hardest schedule
L
at Illinois23–42covered +25.5
at Illinois23–42covered +25.5Wvs UL Monroe26–20missed −9.5
vs UL Monroe26–20missed −9.5L
at Louisiana14–21push +7
at Louisiana14–21push +7W
vs Navy24–20covered +6.5
vs Navy24–20covered +6.5Wvs Samford33–14missed −31
L
at Memphis13–38missed +14.5
at Memphis13–38missed +14.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is