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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

UAB

3–3 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
−11.4
Rank
119
Résumé
96
Projected wins
5.1▲ 0.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3at IllinoisILLUAB +12.7UAB +28.5L 23–4243UAB · W
Sat, Sep 129/12UL MonroeULMUAB −17.6UAB −10.5W 26–2069UAB · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at LouisianaULUAB +2.8UAB +9.0L 14–2147UAB · W
Fri, Sep 259/25NavyNAVYUAB −6.9UAB +12.0W 24–2051UAB · W
Sat, Oct 310/3SamfordSamfordUAB −25.1UAB −31.0W 33–1478
Sat, Oct 1010/10at MemphisMEMUAB +15.5UAB +14.5L 13–3822MEM · W
Thu, Oct 1510/15East CarolinaECUUAB +7.4UAB +4.5ECU −4.5Pass
Sat, Oct 3110/31at South FloridaUSFUAB +11.7—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7CharlotteCLTUAB −15.8—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at TempleTEMUAB +8.8—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21UTSAUTSAUAB +10.8—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at North TexasUNTUAB +17.9—wk 13

Model on UAB games: 4–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 3–0 · home 2–1, away 2–0 · avg gap to the market +7.9 · closer than the market 3 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.13–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.0
Bowl (6+)10%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 2.1 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0974th
Success rate43.0%70th
Pass EPA−0.04111th
Rush EPA+0.1731st
Explosive rate9.1%130th
Quality-drive rate50.0%81st
Points per quality drive3.0125th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0579th
Success allowed45.2%111th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1227th
Rush EPA allowed+0.15113th
Explosive allowed9.4%24th
Havoc rate8.3%88th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.032nd
Turnover margin−179th · exp. 0.0
Field position margin+1.9 yd56th
Hidden points / game−3.1gave up
Luck, wins−0.63.6 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 2–4
Rush rate over expected+12.0%7th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−11.4119th
Schedule played−4.7113th
Schedule remaining−4.586th
Full schedule−4.697th
Pregame expected wins1.9of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 119th · −11.4Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUABgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
UABoff +0.09 74thdef +0.05 allowed · 79th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.