Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3in trend: High totals go under
Florida International
3–2 · Ours #83 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–16FinalWe had FIU 31 – FAU 31
Florida Atlantic
4–1 · Ours #104 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.FAU 50%FAU won
FAU 50%FAU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at FAU −7.5.FAU −4.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. PK · FAU covered by 1.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 62.6.62final 26 · under by 36
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.FIU +7.5Wbeat the close by 3.0
FIU +7.5Wbeat the close by 3.0Quarterbacksthis game
JJ Kohl22/43 · 262 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2715th pct
- Comp %
- 51.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Caden Veltkamp24/36 · 202 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1725th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Florida Internationaloffense | Played like FAU +1.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseFlorida Atlantic | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28th | 35.1%▼3.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.1%▲6.2 | 72nd |
| 17th | −0.20▼0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.56 | 83rd |
| 21st | −0.27▼0.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.27▲0.64 | 79th |
| 30th | −0.11▲0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.11▲0.45 | 70th |
| 5th | 3▼2.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲2.3 | 95th |
| Florida Atlanticoffense | defenseFlorida International | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40th | 38.8%▼6.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.8%▼4.8 | 60th |
| 15th | −0.22▼0.36 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.22▲0.03 | 85th |
| 28th | −0.17▼0.35 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.04 | 72nd |
| 12th | −0.28▼0.44 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.28▲0.04 | 88th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.7 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Florida InternationalFIU | Florida AtlanticFAU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2528th | Own 4096th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.4 pts18th | −0.7 pts26th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7794th | 6777th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +1.654th | −1.646th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.2 pts62nd | −0.1 pts38th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. FAU +10.1: turnovers +7.8, field position +5.3, kicking +0.5, 4th downs −0.4, penalty first downs −3.1. | −10.112th | +10.188th |
Season so far
Florida International3–2 · 123rd-hardest schedule
L
at South Florida9–19covered +14.5
at South Florida9–19covered +14.5W
vs Buffalo33–20covered −10
vs Buffalo33–20covered −10Lat Florida Atlantic10–16missed +4.5
at Florida Atlantic10–16missed +4.5Wvs Long Island University20–3missed −37.5
W
vs New Mexico State22–3covered −7
vs New Mexico State22–3covered −7Florida Atlantic4–1 · 125th-hardest schedule
L
at Florida21–66missed +25.5
at Florida21–66missed +25.5W
vs Navy38–30covered +4
vs Navy38–30covered +4Wvs Florida International16–10covered −4.5
vs Florida International16–10covered −4.5W
at UL Monroe45–17covered −11.5
at UL Monroe45–17covered −11.5Wvs Texas Southern66–10covered −47
Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is