Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Florida International

3–2 FBS · Conference USA · this season
Rating
−4.6
Rank
92
Résumé
86
Projected wins
6.9▲ 1.6 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at South FloridaUSFFIU +20.3FIU +13.5L 9–1947USF · L
Sat, Sep 129/12BuffaloBUFFIU −12.9FIU −10.5W 33–2060FIU · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at Florida AtlanticFAUFIU PKFIU +7.5L 10–1651FIU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26Long Island UniversityLong Island UniversityFIU −33.7FIU −37.5W 20–362
Wed, Oct 710/7New Mexico StateNMSUFIU −7.3FIU −5.5W 22–353FIU · W
Tue, Oct 1310/13at Jacksonville StateJXSTFIU +4.5FIU +3.0JXST −2.5Pass
Sat, Oct 3110/31at LibertyLIBFIU +14.1—wk 9

Model on FIU games: 3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 1–0 · home 2–1, away 1–0 · avg gap to the market +3.4 · closer than the market 2 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.93–2 banked, 7 to play · preseason 5.3
Bowl (6+)62%
9+ wins2%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 3.9 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game25%
Win conference10%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.10131st
Success rate38.7%120th
Pass EPA−0.07118th
Rush EPA−0.14131st
Explosive rate12.7%70th
Quality-drive rate52.7%65th
Points per quality drive2.5134th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.184th
Success allowed33.7%14th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1718th
Rush EPA allowed−0.196th
Explosive allowed6.9%4th
Havoc rate10.9%37th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.130th
Turnover margin−4111th · exp. −3.0
Field position margin−0.5 yd83rd
Hidden points / game−2.1gave up
Luck, wins+0.12.9 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 4–1
Rush rate over expected−2.0%74th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−4.692nd
Schedule played−6.2123rd
Schedule remaining−8.1114th
Full schedule−7.4124th
Pregame expected wins1.7of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 92nd · −4.6Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUFIUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Florida Internationaloff −0.10 131stdef −0.18 allowed · 4th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.