Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Florida International
3–2 FBS · Conference USA · this season
Rating
−4.6
Rank
92
Résumé
86
Projected wins
6.9▲ 1.6 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on FIU games: 3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 1–0 · home 2–1, away 1–0 · avg gap to the market +3.4 · closer than the market 2 of 4
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
6.93–2 banked, 7 to play · preseason 5.3
Bowl (6+)62%
9+ wins2%
11+ wins0%
The 7 games left add 3.9 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game25%
Win conference10%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
5 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.10131st
Success rate38.7%120th
Pass EPA−0.07118th
Rush EPA−0.14131st
Explosive rate12.7%70th
Quality-drive rate52.7%65th
Points per quality drive2.5134th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.184th
Success allowed33.7%14th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1718th
Rush EPA allowed−0.196th
Explosive allowed6.9%4th
Havoc rate10.9%37th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.130th
Turnover margin−4111th · exp. −3.0
Field position margin−0.5 yd83rd
Hidden points / game−2.1gave up
Luck, wins+0.12.9 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 4–1
Rush rate over expected−2.0%74th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−4.692nd
Schedule played−6.2123rd
Schedule remaining−8.1114th
Full schedule−7.4124th
Pregame expected wins1.7of 5
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 92nd · −4.6Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Florida Internationaloff −0.10 131stdef −0.18 allowed · 4th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Florida Internationaloff −0.10 131stdef −0.18 allowed · 4th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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