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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at ARMY · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Florida Atlantic

4–1 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
−3.0
Rank
82
Résumé
50
Projected wins
7.3▲ 3.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at FloridaFLAFAU +24.3FAU +26.5L 21–6628FAU · L
Sat, Sep 129/12NavyNAVYFAU +1.6FAU +6.0W 38–3037FAU · W
Sat, Sep 199/19Florida InternationalFIUFAU PKFAU −7.5W 16–1049FIU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at UL MonroeULMFAU −8.7FAU −13.0W 45–1753ULM · L
Sat, Oct 310/3Texas SouthernTexas SouthernFAU −32.0FAU −47.0W 66–1069
Sat, Oct 1710/17at ArmyARMYFAU +3.6FAU +2.5ARMY −2.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24RiceRICEFAU −8.5—wk 8
Thu, Oct 2910/29at North TexasUNTFAU +9.2—wk 9
Thu, Nov 511/5UTSAUTSAFAU +2.5—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at TulsaTLSAFAU PK—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21South FloridaUSFFAU −1.1—wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27at East CarolinaECUFAU +3.1—wk 13

Model on FAU games: 2–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–1, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +2.7 · closer than the market 1 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.34–1 banked, 7 to play · preseason 3.8
Bowl (6+)70%
9+ wins7%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 3.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game11%
Win conference5%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0973rd
Success rate45.9%46th
Pass EPA+0.1453rd
Rush EPA+0.0393rd
Explosive rate9.3%128th
Quality-drive rate54.2%60th
Points per quality drive4.356th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.14113th
Success allowed38.3%43rd
Pass EPA allowed+0.0680th
Rush EPA allowed+0.22130th
Explosive allowed15.3%127th
Havoc rate9.8%52nd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.99th
Turnover margin+711th · exp. +3.0
Field position margin+7.2 yd15th
Hidden points / game+2.9banked
Luck, wins+1.03.0 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 2–3
Rush rate over expected−7.8%126th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−3.082nd
Schedule played−6.6125th
Schedule remaining−2.877th
Full schedule−4.291st
Pregame expected wins1.8of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 82nd · −3.0Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUFAUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Florida Atlanticoff +0.09 73rddef +0.14 allowed · 113th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.