Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Temple
2–4 · Ours #98 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
48–49FinalWe had TEM 18 – TOL 30
Toledo
4–2 · Ours #64 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TOL 75%TOL won
TOL 75%TOL wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TOL −3.5.TOL −5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −11.3 · TEM covered by 4
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 48.0.48.5final 97 · over by 48.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TOL −4Lbeat the close by 1.0
TOL −4Lbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Ajani Sheppard12/22 · 164 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4379th pct
- Comp %
- 54.5
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
John Alan Richter36/51 · 429 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4178th pct
- Comp %
- 70.6
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Templeoffense | Played like TOL +10.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseToledo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44th | 40.0%▼2.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.0%▼6.2 | 56th |
| 70th | +0.20▲0.12 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.21 | 30th |
| 75th | +0.33▲0.40 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.19 | 25th |
| 62nd | +0.13▼0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.35 | 38th |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| Toledooffense | defenseTemple | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78th | 50.7%▲13.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.7%▼5.3 | 22nd |
| 86th | +0.36▲0.26 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.36▼0.19 | 14th |
| 81st | +0.41▲0.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.10 | 19th |
| 78th | +0.24▲0.28 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.15 | 22nd |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.3 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| TempleTEM | ToledoTOL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3791st | Own 4095th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +2.0 pts94th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7083rd | 7389th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −8.328th | +8.373rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.4 pts74th | −1.0 pts8th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TEM +1.7: field position −0.7, kicking +1.4, 4th downs +1.8, penalty first downs −0.8. | +1.760th | −1.740th |
Season so far
Temple2–4 · 67th-hardest schedule
Wvs Rhode Island38–14covered −14.5
L
vs Penn State9–27covered +24
vs Penn State9–27covered +24Lat Toledo48–49covered +5
at Toledo48–49covered +5L
vs Army17–21missed +3.5
vs Army17–21missed +3.5W
at South Florida17–13covered +5.5
at South Florida17–13covered +5.5L
vs UConn20–34missed −3.5
vs UConn20–34missed −3.5Toledo4–2 · 129th-hardest schedule
L
at Michigan State20–30push +10
at Michigan State20–30push +10Wvs Central Connecticut63–10covered −36
Wvs Temple49–48missed −5
vs Temple49–48missed −5W
vs San Diego State41–16covered −2.5
vs San Diego State41–16covered −2.5W
at Ball State39–24missed −21
at Ball State39–24missed −21L
vs Buffalo8–23missed −18.5
vs Buffalo8–23missed −18.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 12:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is