Week 4 report · Fri, Sep 25 · 2026 Week 4
Navy
2–3 · Ours #117 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–24FinalWe had NAVY 26 – UAB 33
UAB
3–3 · Ours #122 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UAB 67%UAB won
UAB 67%UAB wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NAVY −10.NAVY −6.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +6.9 · UAB covered by 10.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 59.4.50.5final 44 · under by 6.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Jackson Gutierrez4/13 · 104 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.389th pct
- Comp %
- 30.8
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
Ryder Burton13/20 · 174 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1352nd pct
- Comp %
- 65.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Navyoffense | Played like NAVY +0.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUAB | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72nd | 48.6%▲10.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.6%▼1.6 | 28th |
| 53rd | +0.07▼0.15 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.07▲0.07 | 48th |
| 14th | −0.36▼0.67 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.36▲0.38 | 86th |
| 76th | +0.23▼0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.05 | 24th |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.8 | 59th |
| UABoffense | defenseNavy | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41st | 38.9%▼2.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.9%▼1.6 | 59th |
| 55th | +0.08▲0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.08▼0.05 | 45th |
| 56th | +0.13▲0.24 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.13▲0.06 | 44th |
| 51st | +0.05▼0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.05▼0.17 | 49th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| NavyNAVY | UABUAB | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2526th | Own 3481st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.0 pts75th | −0.9 pts24th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7083rd | 5444th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +4.362nd | −4.338th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 05th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts65th | 0.0 pts51st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UAB +2.5: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.2, kicking −1.4, 4th downs −0.4, penalty first downs −1.5. | −2.537th | +2.563rd |
Season so far
Navy2–3 · 122nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Towson42–15missed −31.5
L
at Florida Atlantic30–38missed −4QB change mid-game
at Florida Atlantic30–38missed −4QB change mid-gameLat UAB20–24missed −6.5
at UAB20–24missed −6.5L
at Air Force9–14missed +3QB change mid-game
at Air Force9–14missed +3QB change mid-gameW
vs Tulsa34–26covered −3
vs Tulsa34–26covered −3UAB3–3 · 112th-hardest schedule
L
at Illinois23–42covered +25.5
at Illinois23–42covered +25.5W
vs UL Monroe26–20missed −9.5
vs UL Monroe26–20missed −9.5L
at Louisiana14–21push +7
at Louisiana14–21push +7Wvs Navy24–20covered +6.5
vs Navy24–20covered +6.5Wvs Samford33–14missed −31
L
at Memphis13–38missed +14.5
at Memphis13–38missed +14.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 25, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is