Navy

Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at UTSA · Sat, Oct 17 · 8:00 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

2–3 FBS · American Athletic · this season

Rating

−7.3

Rank

102

Résumé

116

Projected wins

5.1▼ 1.6 vs preseason

CFP odds

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line

DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call

Sat, Sep 59/5TowsonTowsonNAVY −33.9NAVY −31.5W 42–1559

Sat, Sep 129/12

at Florida AtlanticFAUNAVY −1.6NAVY −6.0L 30–3864FAU · W

Fri, Sep 259/25

at UABUABNAVY +6.9NAVY −12.0L 20–2449UAB · W

Sat, Oct 310/3

at Air ForceAFNAVY +5.4NAVY +3.0L 9–1454AF · W

Sat, Oct 1010/10

TulsaTLSANAVY −1.7NAVY −2.5W 34–2665TLSA · L

Sat, Oct 1710/17

at UTSAUTSANAVY +7.0NAVY +7.0UTSA −6.5Pass

Sat, Oct 2410/24

North TexasUNTNAVY +5.7—wk 8

Sat, Oct 3110/31

Notre DameNDNAVY +29.0—wk 9

Sat, Nov 711/7

TempleTEMNAVY −4.0—wk 10

Sat, Nov 2111/21

MemphisMEMNAVY +2.9—wk 12

Sat, Nov 2811/28

at CharlotteCLTNAVY −19.8—wk 13

Sat, Dec 1212/12

at ArmyARMYNAVY +1.2NAVY −2.5wk 15

Model on NAVY games: 3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 2–1 · home 3–0, away 0–1 · avg gap to the market +4.9 · closer than the market 3 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations

Projected wins

5.12–3 banked, 7 to play · preseason 6.7

Bowl (6+)14%

9+ wins0%

11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 3.1 expected wins.

Playoff picture

Reach title game3%

Win conference1%

Make the CFP0%

First-round bye0%

Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS

rank of 138

Offense

EPA per play+0.2414th

Success rate47.3%37th

Pass EPA−0.03108th

Rush EPA+0.331st

Explosive rate13.3%57th

Quality-drive rate45.3%102nd

Points per quality drive4.168th

Defense

EPA allowed+0.0686th

Success allowed37.1%31st

Pass EPA allowed+0.26124th

Rush EPA allowed−0.1020th

Explosive allowed9.2%21st

Havoc rate10.5%42nd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board

rank of 138

Special teams & luck

Special teams EPA / game−0.696th

Turnover margin−5119th · exp. −3.0

Field position margin−2.7 yd105th

Hidden points / game−4.8gave up

Luck, wins−1.23.2 earned

One-score record1–3flipped 4–1

Rush rate over expected+24.6%3rd

Overall

Rating, pts vs average−7.3102nd

Schedule played−6.1122nd

Schedule remaining+0.267th

Full schedule−2.178th

Pregame expected wins2.4of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll

Ours 102nd · −7.3Week 6

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset

Navyoff +0.24 14thdef +0.06 allowed · 86th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.