Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Louisiana
4–2 · Ours #82 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
34–7FinalWe had UL 29 – CLT 22
Charlotte
0–6 · Ours #130 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UL 67%UL won
UL 67%UL wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UL −13.5.UL −9.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7 · UL covered by 17.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.6.49final 41 · under by 8
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Lunch Winfield19/26 · 149 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0341st pct
- Comp %
- 73.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Cole Gonzales9/16 · 68 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.732nd pct
- Comp %
- 56.3
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q4 by Conner Harrell
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Louisianaoffense | Played like UL +28.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseCharlotte | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40th | 38.7%▼1.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.7%▲15.8 | 60th |
| 39th | −0.02▼0.19 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.02▲0.33 | 61st |
| 44th | 0.00▼0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | 0.00▲0.41 | 56th |
| 39th | −0.04▼0.26 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.22 | 61st |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
| Charlotteoffense | defenseLouisiana | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5th | 21.4%▼11.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 21.4%▲24.2 | 95th |
| 1st | −0.60▼0.56 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.60▲0.71 | 99th |
| 6th | −0.55▼0.42 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.55▲0.87 | 94th |
| 1st | −0.73▼0.79 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.73▲0.63 | 99th |
| 16th | 2▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.3 | 84th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| LouisianaUL | CharlotteCLT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 4197th | Own 2211th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.3 pts82nd | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7592nd | 4224th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +23.393rd | −23.37th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.6 pts82nd | −0.7 pts14th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 042nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UL +16.4: turnovers +10.4, field position +6.7, kicking +1.0, 4th downs +1.7, penalty first downs +0.8, return touchdowns −4.2. | +16.498th | −16.42nd |
Season so far
Louisiana4–2 · 127th-hardest schedule
Wvs Lamar38–7covered −20.5
L
at USC30–49covered +31
at USC30–49covered +31W
vs UAB21–14push −7
vs UAB21–14push −7Wat Charlotte34–7covered −9.5
at Charlotte34–7covered −9.5W
vs Arkansas State23–20missed −5
vs Arkansas State23–20missed −5L
at Louisiana Tech31–32covered +3
at Louisiana Tech31–32covered +3Charlotte0–6 · 43rd-hardest schedule
Lvs The Citadel41–43missed −20.5
L
at Ole Miss9–41covered +45
at Ole Miss9–41covered +45L
at App State21–26covered +17.5
at App State21–26covered +17.5Lvs Louisiana7–34missed +9.5
vs Louisiana7–34missed +9.5L
vs Memphis8–59missed +20.5
vs Memphis8–59missed +20.5L
at North Texas10–50missed +28
at North Texas10–50missed +28Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is