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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Charlotte

0–6 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
−22.3
Rank
138
Résumé
138
Projected wins
0.7▼ 1.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5The CitadelThe CitadelCLT −22.9CLT −20.5L 41–4353
Sat, Sep 129/12at Ole MissMISSCLT +44.0CLT +47.5L 9–4135CLT · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at App StateAPPCLT +16.4CLT +19.0L 21–2640CLT · W
Sat, Sep 269/26LouisianaULCLT +7.0CLT +13.5L 7–3431CLT · L
Sat, Oct 310/3MemphisMEMCLT +18.4CLT +20.0L 8–5925CLT · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at North TexasUNTCLT +31.0CLT +27.5L 10–5024UNT · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at TempleTEMCLT +22.4CLT +21.0TEM −21.5Pass
Fri, Oct 3010/30TulaneTULNCLT +16.2—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at UABUABCLT +15.8—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14East CarolinaECUCLT +21.1—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at TulsaTLSACLT +22.2—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28NavyNAVYCLT +19.8—wk 13

Model on CLT games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–2, away 2–0 · avg gap to the market +1.9 · closer than the market 3 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
0.70–6 banked, 6 to play · preseason 2.1
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 0.7 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.05121st
Success rate34.5%132nd
Pass EPA−0.10121st
Rush EPA+0.0392nd
Explosive rate13.5%52nd
Quality-drive rate35.6%132nd
Points per quality drive2.7131st
Defense
EPA allowed+0.19126th
Success allowed48.4%132nd
Pass EPA allowed+0.33135th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0785th
Explosive allowed12.2%85th
Havoc rate8.9%74th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−1.8112th
Turnover margin−11138th · exp. −9.5
Field position margin−8.4 yd135th
Hidden points / game−7.6gave up
Luck, wins−1.01.0 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 2–4
Rush rate over expected−1.5%65th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−22.3138th
Schedule played+3.143rd
Schedule remaining−5.997th
Full schedule−1.876th
Pregame expected wins1.4of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 138th · −22.3Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUCLTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Charlotteoff −0.05 121stdef +0.19 allowed · 126th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.