Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Louisiana

4–2 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−0.3
Rank
70
Résumé
76
Projected wins
7.8▲ 2.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5LamarLamarUL −25.7UL −20.5W 38–779
Sat, Sep 129/12at USCUSCUL +33.5UL +30.0L 30–4962UL · W
Sat, Sep 199/19UABUABUL −2.8UL −9.0W 21–1453UAB · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at CharlotteCLTUL −7.0UL −13.5W 34–769CLT · L
Sat, Oct 310/3Arkansas StateARSTUL −5.4UL −6.5W 23–2061ARST · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at Louisiana TechLTUL PKUL +2.5L 31–3239UL · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17TroyTROYUL −5.6UL −4.0UL −3.5Pass
Thu, Nov 1211/12at UL MonroeULMUL −16.2—wk 11

Model on UL games: 4–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 4–1 · home 0–1, away 4–0 · avg gap to the market +2.5 · closer than the market 1 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.84–2 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.3
Bowl (6+)86%
9+ wins7%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 3.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game15%
Win conference6%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1352nd
Success rate41.8%86th
Pass EPA+0.0292nd
Rush EPA+0.2019th
Explosive rate11.9%91st
Quality-drive rate54.8%54th
Points per quality drive4.445th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0261st
Success allowed42.9%91st
Pass EPA allowed+0.16104th
Rush EPA allowed−0.1710th
Explosive allowed11.1%55th
Havoc rate7.8%101st

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.177th
Turnover margin+432nd · exp. +3.0
Field position margin+3.9 yd32nd
Hidden points / game+2.6banked
Luck, wins+0.93.1 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected+7.1%16th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−0.370th
Schedule played−7.3127th
Schedule remaining−8.6117th
Full schedule−8.0128th
Pregame expected wins2.7of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 70th · −0.3Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUULgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Louisianaoff +0.13 52nddef +0.02 allowed · 61st

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.