Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Louisiana
4–2 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−0.3
Rank
70
Résumé
76
Projected wins
7.8▲ 2.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on UL games: 4–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 4–1 · home 0–1, away 4–0 · avg gap to the market +2.5 · closer than the market 1 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
7.84–2 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.3
Bowl (6+)86%
9+ wins7%
11+ wins0%
The 6 games left add 3.8 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game15%
Win conference6%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1352nd
Success rate41.8%86th
Pass EPA+0.0292nd
Rush EPA+0.2019th
Explosive rate11.9%91st
Quality-drive rate54.8%54th
Points per quality drive4.445th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0261st
Success allowed42.9%91st
Pass EPA allowed+0.16104th
Rush EPA allowed−0.1710th
Explosive allowed11.1%55th
Havoc rate7.8%101st
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.177th
Turnover margin+432nd · exp. +3.0
Field position margin+3.9 yd32nd
Hidden points / game+2.6banked
Luck, wins+0.93.1 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected+7.1%16th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−0.370th
Schedule played−7.3127th
Schedule remaining−8.6117th
Full schedule−8.0128th
Pregame expected wins2.7of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 70th · −0.3Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Louisianaoff +0.13 52nddef +0.02 allowed · 61st
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Louisianaoff +0.13 52nddef +0.02 allowed · 61st
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
at 
at 
at 
at 
at 
at