Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Florida Atlantic
4–1 · Ours #102 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
45–17FinalWe had FAU 34 – ULM 25
UL Monroe
0–5 · Ours #137 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.FAU 70%FAU won
FAU 70%FAU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at FAU −13.5.FAU −11.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −8.7 · FAU covered by 16.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 59.5.58final 62 · over by 4
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Caden Veltkamp29/38 · 314 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2968th pct
- Comp %
- 76.3
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Aidan Armenta23/29 · 278 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3170th pct
- Comp %
- 79.3
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Florida Atlanticoffense | Played like FAU +7.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUL Monroe | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80th | 51.5%▲10.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 51.5%▲2.6 | 20th |
| 78th | +0.28▲0.30 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.28▲0.03 | 23rd |
| 76th | +0.34▲0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.34▲0.13 | 24th |
| 75th | +0.22▲0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.22▼0.04 | 25th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.3 | 21st |
| UL Monroeoffense | defenseFlorida Atlantic | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20th | 31.8%▼8.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.8%▲10.6 | 80th |
| 71st | +0.20▲0.18 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.20▲0.02 | 30th |
| 76th | +0.34▲0.38 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.17 | 24th |
| 49th | +0.03▼0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.27 | 51st |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.7 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Florida AtlanticFAU | UL MonroeULM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2524th | Own 2524th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.3 pts54th | −0.9 pts24th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6880th | 4427th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +16.286th | −16.214th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.6 pts81st | +0.3 pts68th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 042nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. FAU +5.4: kicking +0.9, 4th downs +0.3, return touchdowns +4.2. | +5.474th | −5.426th |
Season so far
Florida Atlantic4–1 · 125th-hardest schedule
L
at Florida21–66missed +25.5
at Florida21–66missed +25.5W
vs Navy38–30covered +4
vs Navy38–30covered +4W
vs Florida International16–10covered −4.5
vs Florida International16–10covered −4.5Wat UL Monroe45–17covered −11.5
at UL Monroe45–17covered −11.5Wvs Texas Southern66–10covered −47
UL Monroe0–5 · 93rd-hardest schedule
L
at Mississippi State13–62missed +28.5
at Mississippi State13–62missed +28.5L
at UAB20–26covered +9.5
at UAB20–26covered +9.5Lvs SE Louisiana35–38missed −9.5
Lvs Florida Atlantic17–45missed +11.5
vs Florida Atlantic17–45missed +11.5L
at South Alabama35–52missed +13.5
at South Alabama35–52missed +13.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is