Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
South Florida
4–2 · Ours #46 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
14–6FinalWe had USF 39 – BGSU 13
Bowling Green
2–4 · Ours #138 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.USF 94%USF won
USF 94%USF wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at USF −17.USF −18.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −25.4 · BGSU covered by 10.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.7.49final 20 · under by 29
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
South Florida
No passer line for this game
Jay Kastantin16/28 · 122 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2815th pct
- Comp %
- 57.1
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| South Floridaoffense | Played like USF +9.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseBowling Green | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65th | 46.2%▲2.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.2%▲2.6 | 35th |
| 22nd | −0.16▼0.25 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.35 | 78th |
| 1st | −1.06▼1.25 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −1.06▲1.07 | 100th |
| 78th | +0.24▲0.22 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.24▲0.08 | 22nd |
| 16th | 2▼1.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.5 | 84th |
| Bowling Greenoffense | defenseSouth Florida | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22nd | 32.8%▼5.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.8%▲11.7 | 78th |
| 8th | −0.33▼0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.33▲0.38 | 92nd |
| 20th | −0.28▼0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.28▲0.47 | 80th |
| 8th | −0.37▼0.22 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.37▲0.41 | 92nd |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| South FloridaUSF | Bowling GreenBGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2955th | Own 3483rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.1 pts9th | +1.3 pts81st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5241st | 6162nd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +19.089th | −19.011th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 05th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.5 pts23rd | −1.0 pts8th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BGSU +5.8: turnovers +5.2, field position +1.8, kicking +2.4, 4th downs −0.6, penalty first downs −3.1. | −5.824th | +5.876th |
Season so far
South Florida4–2 · 118th-hardest schedule
W
vs Florida International19–9missed −14.5
vs Florida International19–9missed −14.5W
at Army28–24covered +3.5
at Army28–24covered +3.5Wvs Delaware State59–17covered −36.5
Wat Bowling Green14–6missed −18.5
at Bowling Green14–6missed −18.5L
vs Temple13–17missed −5.5
vs Temple13–17missed −5.5L
at UTSA24–31missed +6
at UTSA24–31missed +6Bowling Green2–4 · 92nd-hardest schedule
Lvs Tarleton State13–20missed −2
L
at Nebraska7–56missed +30.5
at Nebraska7–56missed +30.5L
at Iowa State7–55missed +23.5
at Iowa State7–55missed +23.5Lvs South Florida6–14covered +18.5
vs South Florida6–14covered +18.5W
at Miami (OH)24–20covered +10.5
at Miami (OH)24–20covered +10.5W
vs Sacramento State38–10covered −9
vs Sacramento State38–10covered −9Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 4:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is