Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
UTSA
5–1 · Ours #73 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
16–14FinalWe had UTSA 33 – RICE 26
Rice
1–5 · Ours #120 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UTSA 67%UTSA won
UTSA 67%UTSA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UTSA −11.UTSA −12.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.7 · RICE covered by 10.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 58.8.56.5final 30 · under by 26.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.RICE +11.5Wlost 1.0 to the close
RICE +11.5Wlost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Owen McCown19/29 · 148 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0732nd pct
- Comp %
- 65.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Jacurri Brown6/14 · 88 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2261st pct
- Comp %
- 42.9
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UTSAoffense | Played like RICE +0.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseRice | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32nd | 36.6%▼7.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.6%▲9.9 | 68th |
| 31st | −0.08▼0.18 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.08▲0.23 | 69th |
| 37th | −0.07▼0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.17 | 63rd |
| 33rd | −0.09▼0.28 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.25 | 68th |
| 41st | 1▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲1.0 | 59th |
| Riceoffense | defenseUTSA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18th | 31.0%▼1.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.0%▲13.2 | 82nd |
| 36th | −0.05▲0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.05▲0.22 | 64th |
| 65th | +0.22▲0.70 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.22▼0.08 | 35th |
| 23rd | −0.16▼0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.35 | 77th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UTSAUTSA | RiceRICE | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3482nd | Own 2850th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.3 pts28th | −2.2 pts8th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7185th | 5853rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +3.459th | −3.441st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.6 pts82nd | +1.0 pts94th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. RICE +0.6: turnovers +2.6, field position −2.1, kicking −1.4, 4th downs +0.6, penalty first downs +0.8. | −0.648th | +0.652nd |
Season so far
UTSA5–1 · 82nd-hardest schedule
Wvs UT Rio Grande Valley45–16covered −28.5
W
at Texas State31–26covered +2.5
at Texas State31–26covered +2.5L
at Texas6–30covered +30
at Texas6–30covered +30W
vs Colorado State59–45push −14
vs Colorado State59–45push −14Wat Rice16–14missed −12.5
at Rice16–14missed −12.5W
vs South Florida31–24covered −6
vs South Florida31–24covered −6Rice1–5 · 28th-hardest schedule
Wvs Houston Christian31–3covered −22.5
L
at Notre Dame0–52missed +44.5
at Notre Dame0–52missed +44.5L
vs Western Michigan21–28covered +8.5
vs Western Michigan21–28covered +8.5L
at Fresno State24–38missed +13
at Fresno State24–38missed +13Lvs UTSA14–16covered +12.5
vs UTSA14–16covered +12.5L
at East Carolina12–28missed +10
at East Carolina12–28missed +10Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is