LockSZNTeam
Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs TLSA · Sat, Oct 17 · 4:30 PM ET →

Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Rice

1–5 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
−10.1
Rank
112
Résumé
130
Projected wins
3.1▲ 0.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Houston ChristianHouston ChristianRICE −27.8RICE −22.5W 31–380
Sat, Sep 129/12at Notre DameNDRICE +43.7RICE +44.5L 0–5211RICE · L
Sat, Sep 199/19Western MichiganWMURICE +11.5RICE +10.5L 21–2846RICE · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at Fresno StateFRESRICE +19.9RICE +13.0L 24–3851FRES · W
Sat, Oct 310/3UTSAUTSARICE +6.7RICE +11.5L 14–1653RICE · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at East CarolinaECURICE +7.5RICE +9.5L 12–2841RICE · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17TulsaTLSARICE +1.8RICE +4.0RICE +4.0Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24at Florida AtlanticFAURICE +8.5—wk 8
Sat, Nov 711/7at North TexasUNTRICE +15.1—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14TulaneTULNRICE +0.7—wk 11
Thu, Nov 1911/19at TempleTEMRICE +6.4—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28ArmyARMYRICE +5.9—wk 13

Model on RICE games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 2–2 · home 3–0, away 0–2 · avg gap to the market +3.8 · closer than the market 1 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
3.11–5 banked, 6 to play · preseason 2.8
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 2.1 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.00102nd
Success rate39.5%113th
Pass EPA−0.22132nd
Rush EPA+0.0867th
Explosive rate9.2%129th
Quality-drive rate38.3%128th
Points per quality drive3.886th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0262nd
Success allowed39.7%57th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0545th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0891st
Explosive allowed13.9%112th
Havoc rate8.7%81st

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−2.4116th
Turnover margin−8135th · exp. −3.5
Field position margin−9.2 yd137th
Hidden points / game−6.2gave up
Luck, wins−0.61.6 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 3–3
Rush rate over expected+24.3%4th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−10.1112th
Schedule played+4.728th
Schedule remaining−3.178th
Full schedule+0.571st
Pregame expected wins1.6of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 112th · −10.1Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMURICEgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Riceoff +0.00 102nddef +0.02 allowed · 62nd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.