Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Navy
2–3 · Ours #110 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
9–14FinalWe had NAVY 26 – AF 31
Air Force
4–1 · Ours #91 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.AF 63%AF won
AF 63%AF wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at AF −2.AF −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5.4 · AF covered by 2
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.7.45.5final 23 · under by 22.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.AF −3Wmatched the close
AF −3Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Jackson Gutierrez7/15 · 140 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3271st pct
- Comp %
- 46.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Liam Szarka6/11 · 82 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0443rd pct
- Comp %
- 54.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Navyoffense | Played like NAVY +0.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseAir Force | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15th | 29.8%▼14.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 29.8%▲12.9 | 85th |
| 33rd | −0.07▼0.33 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.14 | 67th |
| 55th | +0.12▼0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.12 | 45th |
| 21st | −0.19▼0.57 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.19▲0.37 | 79th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
| Air Forceoffense | defenseNavy | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26th | 34.7%▼17.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.7%▲4.0 | 74th |
| 25th | −0.13▼0.38 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.23 | 75th |
| 44th | −0.01▲0.51 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.24 | 57th |
| 24th | −0.15▼0.41 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.10 | 76th |
| 16th | 2▼1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.7 | 84th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| NavyNAVY | Air ForceAF | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2420th | Own 3059th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.2 pts20th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4732nd | 7287th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −1.048th | +1.053rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 05th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.4 pts74th | +0.2 pts64th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. AF +1.6: turnovers −2.6, field position +2.0, kicking +0.9, 4th downs −0.2, penalty first downs +1.5. | −1.641st | +1.659th |
Season so far
Navy2–3 · 122nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Towson42–15missed −31.5
L
at Florida Atlantic30–38missed −4QB change mid-game
at Florida Atlantic30–38missed −4QB change mid-gameL
at UAB20–24missed −6.5
at UAB20–24missed −6.5Lat Air Force9–14missed +3QB change mid-game
at Air Force9–14missed +3QB change mid-gameW
vs Tulsa34–26covered −3
vs Tulsa34–26covered −3Air Force4–1 · 126th-hardest schedule
Wvs Duquesne34–0covered −31.5
L
vs North Dakota State32–38missed +2
vs North Dakota State32–38missed +2W
at Nevada36–33missed −5.5
at Nevada36–33missed −5.5Wvs Navy14–9covered −3
vs Navy14–9covered −3W
at Northern Illinois28–7covered −7
at Northern Illinois28–7covered −7Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is