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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Air Force

4–1 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
−3.6
Rank
85
Résumé
51
Projected wins
7.9▲ 2.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5DuquesneDuquesneAF −25.8AF −31.5W 34–083
Sat, Sep 129/12North Dakota StateNDSUAF +11.3AF +5.5L 32–3865NDSU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at NevadaNEVAF +1.9AF −4.5W 36–3353NEV · W
Sat, Oct 310/3NavyNAVYAF −5.4AF −3.0W 14–946AF · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at Northern IllinoisNIUAF −10.5AF −10.0W 28–768NIU · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17UNLVUNLVAF −2.6AF PKAF +1.5Pass
Fri, Oct 2310/23at WyomingWYOAF −7.3—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31UConnCONNAF −1.4—wk 9
Sat, Nov 711/7at ArmyARMYAF +8.3—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14San José StateSJSUAF −11.2—wk 11
Fri, Nov 2011/20UTEPUTEPAF −18.4—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at New MexicoUNMAF +15.4—wk 13

Model on AF games: 3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 1–1 · home 2–1, away 1–0 · avg gap to the market +5.7 · closer than the market 2 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.94–1 banked, 7 to play · preseason 5.1
Bowl (6+)85%
9+ wins10%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 3.9 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game41%
Win conference12%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1642nd
Success rate48.3%25th
Pass EPA+0.0488th
Rush EPA+0.1824th
Explosive rate10.7%112th
Quality-drive rate53.2%64th
Points per quality drive5.015th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0143rd
Success allowed37.6%36th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0836th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0479th
Explosive allowed12.2%85th
Havoc rate8.4%84th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−1.7111th
Turnover margin+158th · exp. +1.0
Field position margin+1.9 yd55th
Hidden points / game+0.4banked
Luck, wins+0.23.8 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 3–2
Rush rate over expected+31.2%1st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−3.685th
Schedule played−7.2126th
Schedule remaining−4.988th
Full schedule−5.7113th
Pregame expected wins2.7of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 85th · −3.6Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUAFgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Air Forceoff +0.16 42nddef −0.01 allowed · 43rd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.