Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Temple
2–4 · Ours #94 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
17–13FinalWe had TEM 24 – USF 31
South Florida
4–2 · Ours #60 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.USF 68%TEM won
USF 68%TEM wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at USF −5.5.USF −5.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7.6 · TEM covered by 9.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.9.50.5final 30 · under by 20.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.USF −6.5Llost 1.0 to the close
USF −6.5Llost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Ajani Sheppard9/14 · 92 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0336th pct
- Comp %
- 64.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
South Florida
No passer line for this game
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Templeoffense | Played like TEM +1.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSouth Florida | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22nd | 32.7%▼11.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.7%▲11.8 | 78th |
| 50th | +0.06▼0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.06▼0.10 | 50th |
| 41st | −0.03▼0.05 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.16 | 59th |
| 58th | +0.10▼0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.10▼0.17 | 42nd |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
| South Floridaoffense | defenseTemple | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37th | 37.9%▼8.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.9%▲10.7 | 63rd |
| 39th | −0.03▼0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.29 | 62nd |
| 42nd | −0.02▲0.05 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.02▲0.44 | 58th |
| 39th | −0.04▼0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.19 | 61st |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲1.0 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| TempleTEM | South FloridaUSF | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3060th | Own 2315th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.6 pts61st | +0.3 pts51st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4935th | 6675th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −4.636th | +4.664th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 05th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts51st | −0.1 pts40th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TEM +4.2: field position +2.4, kicking +0.2, 4th downs +0.1, penalty first downs +1.5. | +4.270th | −4.231st |
Season so far
Temple2–4 · 67th-hardest schedule
Wvs Rhode Island38–14covered −14.5
L
vs Penn State9–27covered +24
vs Penn State9–27covered +24L
at Toledo48–49covered +5
at Toledo48–49covered +5L
vs Army17–21missed +3.5
vs Army17–21missed +3.5Wat South Florida17–13covered +5.5
at South Florida17–13covered +5.5L
vs UConn20–34missed −3.5
vs UConn20–34missed −3.5South Florida4–2 · 118th-hardest schedule
W
vs Florida International19–9missed −14.5
vs Florida International19–9missed −14.5Wat Army28–24covered +3.5
at Army28–24covered +3.5Wvs Delaware State59–17covered −36.5
W
at Bowling Green14–6missed −18.5
at Bowling Green14–6missed −18.5Lvs Temple13–17missed −5.5
vs Temple13–17missed −5.5L
at UTSA24–31missed +6
at UTSA24–31missed +6Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is