Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Rice
1–5 · Ours #113 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
12–28FinalWe had RICE 22 – ECU 29
East Carolina
3–2 · Ours #79 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ECU 68%ECU won
ECU 68%ECU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ECU −9.ECU −10oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7.5 · ECU covered by 6
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.1.46.5final 40 · under by 6.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.RICE +9.5Llost 0.5 to the close
RICE +9.5Llost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Jacurri Brown2/10 · 21 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −1.201st pct
- Comp %
- 20.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Relieved in Q4 by Gael Ochoa
Emory Williams19/31 · 143 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2022nd pct
- Comp %
- 61.3
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Riceoffense | Played like ECU +12.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseEast Carolina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9th | 26.6%▼6.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 26.6%▲12.7 | 91st |
| 6th | −0.37▼0.36 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.37▲0.41 | 94th |
| 2nd | −0.80▼0.56 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.80▲0.81 | 98th |
| 18th | −0.22▼0.30 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.22▲0.24 | 83rd |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| East Carolinaoffense | defenseRice | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20th | 32.0%▼3.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.0%▲15.6 | 80th |
| 24th | −0.13▼0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.30 | 77th |
| 22nd | −0.26▼0.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.26▲0.41 | 79th |
| 42nd | −0.02▲0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.02▲0.16 | 58th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.3 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| RiceRICE | East CarolinaECU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2739th | Own 4197th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +2.0 pts95th | −2.3 pts7th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6470th | 7592nd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −1.945th | +1.955th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 05th | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.1 pts38th | −1.0 pts8th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ECU +6.9: turnovers +5.2, field position +5.1, kicking −3.0, 4th downs −1.1, penalty first downs +0.8. | −6.921st | +6.979th |
Season so far
Rice1–5 · 28th-hardest schedule
Wvs Houston Christian31–3covered −22.5
L
at Notre Dame0–52missed +44.5
at Notre Dame0–52missed +44.5L
vs Western Michigan21–28covered +8.5
vs Western Michigan21–28covered +8.5L
at Fresno State24–38missed +13
at Fresno State24–38missed +13L
vs UTSA14–16covered +12.5
vs UTSA14–16covered +12.5Lat East Carolina12–28missed +10
at East Carolina12–28missed +10East Carolina3–2 · 85th-hardest schedule
L
at Alabama10–48missed +28
at Alabama10–48missed +28L
vs App State24–27missed −6.5
vs App State24–27missed −6.5W
at Old Dominion20–17covered +2.5
at Old Dominion20–17covered +2.5Wvs North Carolina Central42–9missed −37.5
Wvs Rice28–12covered −10
vs Rice28–12covered −10Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is