Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6in trend: High totals go under
UAB
3–3 · Ours #120 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–38FinalWe had UAB 20 – MEM 36
Memphis
5–1 · Ours #49 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MEM 83%MEM won
MEM 83%MEM wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MEM −15.MEM −14.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −15.5 · MEM covered by 10.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.9.55final 51 · under by 4
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MEM −14.5Wmatched the close
MEM −14.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Ryder Burton10/20 · 131 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.534th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Marcus Stokes11/21 · 164 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2867th pct
- Comp %
- 52.4
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UABoffense | Played like MEM +23.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMemphis | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36th | 37.7%▼4.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.7%▲3.5 | 64th |
| 23rd | −0.14▼0.24 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.25 | 77th |
| 7th | −0.53▼0.57 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.53▲0.38 | 93rd |
| 57th | +0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.09▲0.27 | 43rd |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.5 | 59th |
| Memphisoffense | defenseUAB | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85th | 53.2%▲5.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 53.2%▼7.3 | 15th |
| 79th | +0.29▲0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.20 | 21st |
| 64th | +0.21▼0.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.33 | 36th |
| 86th | +0.33▲0.25 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.18 | 14th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UABUAB | MemphisMEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2738th | Own 3169th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.5 pts85th | +0.5 pts59th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6162nd | 6264th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −16.914th | +16.987th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.6 pts17th | 0.0 pts51st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MEM +7.4: turnovers +7.8, field position +1.7, kicking −0.7, 4th downs +0.9, penalty first downs −2.3. | −7.419th | +7.481st |
Season so far
UAB3–3 · 112th-hardest schedule
L
at Illinois23–42covered +25.5
at Illinois23–42covered +25.5W
vs UL Monroe26–20missed −9.5
vs UL Monroe26–20missed −9.5L
at Louisiana14–21push +7
at Louisiana14–21push +7W
vs Navy24–20covered +6.5
vs Navy24–20covered +6.5Wvs Samford33–14missed −31
Lat Memphis13–38missed +14.5
at Memphis13–38missed +14.5Memphis5–1 · 124th-hardest schedule
W
at UNLV27–21covered +5
at UNLV27–21covered +5W
vs Arkansas State42–24covered −11
vs Arkansas State42–24covered −11L
at Boise State20–38missed +9
at Boise State20–38missed +9Wvs UT Martin45–21missed −33.5
W
at Charlotte59–8covered −20.5
at Charlotte59–8covered −20.5Wvs UAB38–13covered −14.5
vs UAB38–13covered −14.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is