Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Tulsa
3–3 · Ours #92 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
26–34FinalWe had TLSA 25 – NAVY 27
Navy
2–3 · Ours #106 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.NAVY 54%NAVY won
NAVY 54%NAVY wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NAVY −2.5.NAVY −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −1.7 · NAVY covered by 5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.5.47.5final 60 · over by 12.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TLSA +2.5Llost 0.5 to the close
TLSA +2.5Llost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Baylor Hayes22/36 · 268 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1857th pct
- Comp %
- 61.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Jackson Gutierrez5/7 · 95 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.81
- Comp %
- 71.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Tulsaoffense | Played like NAVY +18.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNavy | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17th | 30.8%▼5.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 30.8%▲9.2 | 83rd |
| 62nd | +0.14▲0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.13 | 38th |
| 69th | +0.26▲0.34 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.11 | 31st |
| 40th | −0.03▼0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.03▼0.06 | 60th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| Navyoffense | defenseTulsa | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75th | 49.3%▲11.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 49.3%▼9.7 | 25th |
| 91st | +0.42▲0.33 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.42▼0.43 | 9th |
| 96th | +0.81▲0.88 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.81▼0.68 | 4th |
| 90th | +0.38▲0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.38▼0.52 | 10th |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.8 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| TulsaTLSA | NavyNAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2952nd | Own 4197th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.4 pts17th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6573rd | 7185th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −13.718th | +13.783rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 05th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.5 pts77th | −0.1 pts37th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TLSA +6.5: turnovers +10.4, field position −4.5, kicking −1.0, 4th downs +0.8, penalty first downs +0.8. | +6.578th | −6.522nd |
Season so far
Tulsa3–3 · 97th-hardest schedule
W
vs Oklahoma State24–10covered +13
vs Oklahoma State24–10covered +13W
at Sam Houston23–17missed −12.5
at Sam Houston23–17missed −12.5Wvs East Texas A&M42–0covered −41
L
at Arkansas6–34missed +7
at Arkansas6–34missed +7L
vs North Texas44–45covered +2.5
vs North Texas44–45covered +2.5Lat Navy26–34missed +3
at Navy26–34missed +3Navy2–3 · 122nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Towson42–15missed −31.5
L
at Florida Atlantic30–38missed −4QB change mid-game
at Florida Atlantic30–38missed −4QB change mid-gameL
at UAB20–24missed −6.5
at UAB20–24missed −6.5L
at Air Force9–14missed +3QB change mid-game
at Air Force9–14missed +3QB change mid-gameWvs Tulsa34–26covered −3
vs Tulsa34–26covered −3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is