Board · Fri, Oct 16 · 7:30 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
Memphis
5–1 · Ours #47Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
29–23Our projected score
Tulane
2–3 · Ours #83Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.MEM 66%
MEM 66%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.MEM −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.3 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −7
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.55.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 51.6 · opened 52.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.TULN +7.5-122 FanDuel53% to cover · -2.9% EV
TULN +7.5-122 FanDuel53% to cover · -2.9% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Marcus StokesJunior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.417th
- Comp %
- 69.4
- TD
- 16
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 8
Kadin SemonzaJunior · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.12123rd
- Comp %
- 53.8
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 12
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Tulaneoffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseMemphis | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98th | +0.01 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.08 | 94th |
| 134th | 33.3% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 39.8% | 59th |
| 120th | −0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.11 | 28th |
| 48th | +0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.26 | 136th |
| 89th | 12.0% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 14.6% | 120th |
| Memphisoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseTulane | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8th | +0.26 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.10 | 100th |
| 13th | 50.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 41.9% | 82nd |
| 9th | +0.38 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.18 | 107th |
| 27th | +0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.06 | 83rd |
| 7th | 17.5% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 12.1% | 81st |
Team stats
| TulaneTULN | MemphisMEM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +1.056th | −0.9102nd |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −0.378th | −2.099th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 38%129th | 52%68th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.05121st | 4.6731st |
| Time of possession | 22:48132nd | 27:3689th |
| Plays per game | 58128th | 6752nd |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | 0 | +4 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 5 – 5 | 8 – 12 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 5.9%131st | 9.2%69th |
Season so far
Memphis5–1 · 124th-hardest schedule
W
at UNLV27–21covered +5
at UNLV27–21covered +5W
vs Arkansas State42–24covered −11
vs Arkansas State42–24covered −11L
at Boise State20–38missed +9
at Boise State20–38missed +9Wvs UT Martin45–21missed −33.5
W
at Charlotte59–8covered −20.5
at Charlotte59–8covered −20.5W
vs UAB38–13covered −14.5
vs UAB38–13covered −14.5Tulane2–3 · 89th-hardest schedule
L
at Duke3–17missed +9QB change mid-game
at Duke3–17missed +9QB change mid-gameW
vs South Alabama28–24missed −9.5
vs South Alabama28–24missed −9.5L
at Kansas State20–31covered +20.5
at Kansas State20–31covered +20.5W
vs Southern Miss24–21missed −18.5
vs Southern Miss24–21missed −18.5L
at Army17–20covered +4
at Army17–20covered +4Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is