Board · Sat, Oct 17 · 8:00 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
Navy
2–3 · Ours #102Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
25–32Our projected score
UTSA
5–1 · Ours #65Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.UTSA 67%
UTSA 67%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.UTSA −7oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −6.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.56oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 56.8 · opened 55.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.UTSA −6.5-120 FanDuel53% to cover · -2.6% EV
UTSA −6.5-120 FanDuel53% to cover · -2.6% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Jackson GutierrezJunior · 4 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.14
- Comp %
- 47.8
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 7
Owen McCownSenior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0875th
- Comp %
- 68.7
- TD
- 7
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| UTSAoffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseNavy | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54th | +0.12 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.06 | 86th |
| 45th | 46.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 37.1% | 31st |
| 77th | +0.07 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.26 | 124th |
| 30th | +0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.10 | 20th |
| 103rd | 11.5% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 9.2% | 21st |
| Navyoffense | Offense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseUTSA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14th | +0.24 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.11 | 103rd |
| 37th | 47.3% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 41.3% | 74th |
| 108th | −0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.11 | 90th |
| 1st | +0.33 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.11 | 106th |
| 57th | 13.3% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 7.9% | 6th |
Team stats
| UTSAUTSA | NavyNAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +2.129th | −0.696th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +2.845th | −2.7105th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 51%79th | 45%102nd |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.7987th | 4.0869th |
| Time of possession | 26:30106th | 30:4233rd |
| Plays per game | 6665th | 6486th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +3 | −5 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 6 – 9 | 11 – 6 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 6.9%115th | 10.5%43rd |
Season so far
Navy2–3 · 122nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Towson42–15missed −31.5
L
at Florida Atlantic30–38missed −4QB change mid-game
at Florida Atlantic30–38missed −4QB change mid-gameL
at UAB20–24missed −6.5
at UAB20–24missed −6.5L
at Air Force9–14missed +3QB change mid-game
at Air Force9–14missed +3QB change mid-gameW
vs Tulsa34–26covered −3
vs Tulsa34–26covered −3UTSA5–1 · 82nd-hardest schedule
Wvs UT Rio Grande Valley45–16covered −28.5
W
at Texas State31–26covered +2.5
at Texas State31–26covered +2.5L
at Texas6–30covered +30
at Texas6–30covered +30W
vs Colorado State59–45push −14
vs Colorado State59–45push −14W
at Rice16–14missed −12.5
at Rice16–14missed −12.5W
vs South Florida31–24covered −6
vs South Florida31–24covered −6Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is