Board · Sat, Oct 17 · 4:30 PM ET · Week 7Week 7 report
Tulsa
3–3 · Ours #99Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
26–24Our projected score
Rice
1–5 · Ours #112Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.TLSA 55%
TLSA 55%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.TLSA −4.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −1.8 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −4
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.46oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 50.2 · opened 46.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.RICE +4.5-112 DraftKings51% to cover · -3.1% EV
RICE +4.5-112 DraftKings51% to cover · -3.1% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Baylor HayesSophomore · 4 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- 0.00100th
- Comp %
- 60.6
- TD
- 5
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
Jacurri BrownSenior · 6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.21
- Comp %
- 48.7
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 9
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Riceoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseTulsa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 103rd | 0.00 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.04 | 67th |
| 113th | 39.5% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 40.3% | 66th |
| 132nd | −0.22 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.08 | 85th |
| 67th | +0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.01 | 58th |
| 129th | 9.2% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 11.5% | 67th |
| Tulsaoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseRice | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70th | +0.09 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.02 | 62nd |
| 124th | 37.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 39.7% | 57th |
| 107th | −0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.05 | 45th |
| 10th | +0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.08 | 91st |
| 119th | 9.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 13.9% | 112th |
Team stats
| RiceRICE | TulsaTLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −2.4117th | −0.282nd |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −9.2137th | +1.361st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 38%128th | 44%109th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.8386th | 4.3748th |
| Time of possession | 30:0645th | 26:30107th |
| Plays per game | 61112th | 6664th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −8 | +7 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 13 – 5 | 7 – 14 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 8.7%81st | 7.3%110th |
Season so far
Tulsa3–3 · 97th-hardest schedule
W
vs Oklahoma State24–10covered +13
vs Oklahoma State24–10covered +13W
at Sam Houston23–17missed −12.5
at Sam Houston23–17missed −12.5Wvs East Texas A&M42–0covered −41
L
at Arkansas6–34missed +7
at Arkansas6–34missed +7L
vs North Texas44–45covered +2.5
vs North Texas44–45covered +2.5L
at Navy26–34missed +3
at Navy26–34missed +3Rice1–5 · 28th-hardest schedule
Wvs Houston Christian31–3covered −22.5
L
at Notre Dame0–52missed +44.5
at Notre Dame0–52missed +44.5L
vs Western Michigan21–28covered +8.5
vs Western Michigan21–28covered +8.5L
at Fresno State24–38missed +13
at Fresno State24–38missed +13L
vs UTSA14–16covered +12.5
vs UTSA14–16covered +12.5L
at East Carolina12–28missed +10
at East Carolina12–28missed +10Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is