South Florida
4–2 · Ours #72Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
22–24Our projected score
East Carolina
3–2 · Ours #78Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.ECU 56%
ECU 56%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. ECU −2.2
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 46.0
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Michael Van Buren Jr.Junior · 2 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +5.03
- Comp %
- 100.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
New starter last game
Emory WilliamsSenior · 2 starts this year · 2 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 134 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.09117th
- Comp %
- 64.5
- TD
- 5
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| East Carolinaoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseSouth Florida | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 104th | 0.00 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.01 | 58th |
| 108th | 39.8% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 43.5% | 95th |
| 113th | −0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | +0.04 | 73rd |
| 90th | +0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.02 | 49th |
| 92nd | 11.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 10.5% | 46th |
| South Floridaoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseEast Carolina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61st | +0.11 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.14 | 15th |
| 41st | 46.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.6%. | 32.0% | 4th |
| 72nd | +0.09 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.10. | −0.21 | 8th |
| 42nd | +0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.09 | 26th |
| 109th | 10.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.9%. | 11.5% | 69th |
Team stats
| East CarolinaECU | South FloridaUSF | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −1.9113th | +0.762nd |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +0.963rd | +3.637th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 46%95th | 46%98th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.04122nd | 4.8120th |
| Time of possession | 22:48131st | 21:12137th |
| Plays per game | 62103rd | 59124th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −1 | +1 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 9 – 8 | 6 – 7 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 17.1%2nd | 9.7%56th |
Season so far
South Florida4–2 · 118th-hardest schedule
W
vs Florida International19–9missed −14.5
vs Florida International19–9missed −14.5W
at Army28–24covered +3.5
at Army28–24covered +3.5Wvs Delaware State59–17covered −36.5
W
at Bowling Green14–6missed −18.5
at Bowling Green14–6missed −18.5L
vs Temple13–17missed −5.5
vs Temple13–17missed −5.5L
at UTSA24–31missed +6
at UTSA24–31missed +6East Carolina3–2 · 85th-hardest schedule
L
at Alabama10–48missed +28
at Alabama10–48missed +28L
vs App State24–27missed −6.5
vs App State24–27missed −6.5W
at Old Dominion20–17covered +2.5
at Old Dominion20–17covered +2.5Wvs North Carolina Central42–9missed −37.5
W
vs Rice28–12covered −10
vs Rice28–12covered −10Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is