Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1in trend: Weeks 0, 1 and 2 go under
Western Kentucky
2–4 · Ours #85 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
14–49FinalWe had WKU 28 – NEV 25
Nevada
2–3 · Ours #116 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.WKU 58%NEV won
WKU 58%NEV wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NEV +2.5.PKoursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +3.3 · NEV covered by 35
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.8.51.5final 63 · over by 11.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WKU −2.5Llost 2.5 to the close
WKU −2.5Llost 2.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Rodney Tisdale Jr.24/40 · 203 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0633rd pct
- Comp %
- 60.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Carter Jones9/15 · 163 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0645th pct
- Comp %
- 60.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Western Kentuckyoffense | Played like NEV +19.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNevada | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61st | 44.8%▲13.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.8%▼12.3 | 40th |
| 31st | −0.08▲0.16 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.08▲0.10 | 69th |
| 40th | −0.04▲0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.13 | 60th |
| 27th | −0.13▲0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.10 | 73rd |
| 16th | 2▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.7 | 84th |
| Nevadaoffense | defenseWestern Kentucky | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77th | 50.0%▲8.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.0%▼2.4 | 23rd |
| 82nd | +0.31▲0.28 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.31▼0.11 | 19th |
| 33rd | −0.12▲0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.38 | 67th |
| 97th | +0.58▲0.37 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.58▼0.48 | 4th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Western KentuckyWKU | NevadaNEV | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2419th | Own 3376th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5853rd | 4020th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −14.916th | +14.984th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 248th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.1 pts38th | +0.7 pts87th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. NEV +6.8: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.1, 4th downs +1.1. | −6.821st | +6.879th |
Season so far
Western Kentucky2–4 · 46th-hardest schedule
Lat Nevada14–49missed PK
at Nevada14–49missed PKL
at Georgia20–70missed +40.5QB change mid-game
at Georgia20–70missed +40.5QB change mid-gameL
at Indiana0–38covered +44.5
at Indiana0–38covered +44.5Wvs Mercyhurst52–7covered −40
L
at New Mexico State13–34missed +2
at New Mexico State13–34missed +2W
vs Missouri State34–13covered +1
vs Missouri State34–13covered +1Nevada2–3 · 138th-hardest schedule
Wvs Western Kentucky49–14covered PK
vs Western Kentucky49–14covered PKLvs Montana State7–20missed +4.5QB change mid-game
L
at Middle Tennessee20–27missed −3.5
at Middle Tennessee20–27missed −3.5L
vs Air Force33–36covered +5.5
vs Air Force33–36covered +5.5W
at UTEP30–13covered −10
at UTEP30–13covered −10Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 10:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is