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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Nevada

2–3 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
−7.4
Rank
103
Résumé
132
Projected wins
5.0▲ 0.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Western KentuckyWKUNEV +3.3NEV +2.5W 49–1476WKU · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Montana StateMontana StateNEV −29.7NEV +4.5L 7–2038
Sat, Sep 199/19at Middle TennesseeMTSUNEV PKNEV −6.0L 20–2737MTSU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26Air ForceAFNEV −1.9NEV +4.5L 33–3647NEV · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at UTEPUTEPNEV −8.5NEV −9.5W 30–1366UTEP · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at North Dakota StateNDSUNEV +12.3NEV +14.5NEV +14.5Pass
Sat, Oct 2410/24San José StateSJSUNEV −8.3—wk 8
Sat, Oct 3110/31at UCLAUCLANEV +26.0—wk 9
Fri, Nov 611/6New MexicoUNMNEV +14.0—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Northern IllinoisNIUNEV −9.9—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21Hawai'iHAWNEV −7.1—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at UNLVUNLVNEV +4.6—wk 13

Model on NEV games: 2–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 2–1 · home 2–1, away 0–1 · avg gap to the market +3.9 · closer than the market 1 of 4

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.02–3 banked, 7 to play · preseason 4.9
Bowl (6+)33%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 7 games left add 3.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game9%
Win conference3%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

5 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0294th
Success rate41.8%85th
Pass EPA−0.21130th
Rush EPA+0.2114th
Explosive rate11.7%98th
Quality-drive rate47.3%90th
Points per quality drive4.074th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0263rd
Success allowed38.9%51st
Pass EPA allowed+0.0372nd
Rush EPA allowed+0.0270th
Explosive allowed9.9%34th
Havoc rate8.3%90th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.120th
Turnover margin−5119th · exp. −4.5
Field position margin−3.9 yd123rd
Hidden points / game−2.1gave up
Luck, wins−0.92.9 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 4–1
Rush rate over expected+5.5%19th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−7.4103rd
Schedule played−12.1138th
Schedule remaining−2.274th
Full schedule−5.8114th
Pregame expected wins1.8of 5

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 103rd · −7.4Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUNEVgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Nevadaoff +0.02 94thdef +0.02 allowed · 63rd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.