Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Western Kentucky
2–4 FBS · Conference USA · this season
Rating
−12.4
Rank
127
Résumé
112
Projected wins
4.9▼ 0.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on WKU games: 1–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 1–3 · home 0–0, away 1–4 · avg gap to the market +4.0 · closer than the market 2 of 5
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
4.92–4 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.2
Bowl (6+)10%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%
The 6 games left add 2.9 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game7%
Win conference2%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
6 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.06125th
Success rate38.9%119th
Pass EPA−0.00100th
Rush EPA−0.13130th
Explosive rate10.7%113th
Quality-drive rate40.7%117th
Points per quality drive2.6133rd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0898th
Success allowed42.6%88th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0269th
Rush EPA allowed+0.15110th
Explosive allowed14.3%118th
Havoc rate7.9%99th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.389th
Turnover margin−294th · exp. −2.5
Field position margin−6.1 yd131st
Hidden points / game−3.8gave up
Luck, wins−0.02.0 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−2.3%78th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−12.4127th
Schedule played+2.646th
Schedule remaining−7.4108th
Full schedule−2.880th
Pregame expected wins2.6of 6
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 127th · −12.4Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Western Kentuckyoff −0.06 125thdef +0.08 allowed · 98th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Western Kentuckyoff −0.06 125thdef +0.08 allowed · 98th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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