Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Western Kentucky

2–4 FBS · Conference USA · this season
Rating
−12.4
Rank
127
Résumé
112
Projected wins
4.9▼ 0.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at NevadaNEVWKU −3.3WKU −2.5L 14–4925WKU · L
Sat, Sep 129/12at GeorgiaUGAWKU +37.5WKU +40.0L 20–702WKU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at IndianaIUWKU +37.4WKU +44.5L 0–3818WKU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26MercyhurstMercyhurstWKU −31.4WKU −40.0W 52–797
Thu, Oct 110/1at New Mexico StateNMSUWKU −2.1WKU +2.5L 13–3441WKU · L
Thu, Oct 810/8Missouri StateMOSTWKU −1.4WKU −2.5W 34–1363MOST · L
Wed, Oct 1410/14at Sam HoustonSHSUWKU −3.3WKU −1.0WKU +1.5Pass
Sat, Nov 2111/21at LibertyLIBWKU +17.7—wk 12

Model on WKU games: 1–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–1 · as the dog 1–3 · home 0–0, away 1–4 · avg gap to the market +4.0 · closer than the market 2 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.92–4 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.2
Bowl (6+)10%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 2.9 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game7%
Win conference2%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.06125th
Success rate38.9%119th
Pass EPA−0.00100th
Rush EPA−0.13130th
Explosive rate10.7%113th
Quality-drive rate40.7%117th
Points per quality drive2.6133rd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0898th
Success allowed42.6%88th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0269th
Rush EPA allowed+0.15110th
Explosive allowed14.3%118th
Havoc rate7.9%99th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.389th
Turnover margin−294th · exp. −2.5
Field position margin−6.1 yd131st
Hidden points / game−3.8gave up
Luck, wins−0.02.0 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−2.3%78th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−12.4127th
Schedule played+2.646th
Schedule remaining−7.4108th
Full schedule−2.880th
Pregame expected wins2.6of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 127th · −12.4Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUWKUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Western Kentuckyoff −0.06 125thdef +0.08 allowed · 98th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.