Board · Sat, Aug 29 · 3:00 PM ET · Week 0
Preseason modelNo 2026 games are in the book yet. This line starts from last season and the offseason evidence shown below.
Spread
Our lineUSC −23.1
MarketUSC −38.5as of Aug 28, 12:05 PM EDT
Pick
SJSU +38.5-102
SJSU +38.5-102USC wins by 38.5 or more in 48% of the games we simulate.
Total
Our total57.9
Market61.5as of Aug 28, 12:05 PM EDT
PickUnder 61.5-110
The game clears 61.5 in 48% of the games we simulate.
Win probability
San José State 9%USC 91%
Shape of the game
Margin
USC by 38.5+48%Points
Over 61.548%
Line movement
| | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | O/U | Spread | O/U | |
| Tue Aug 1111:29PM | −38.5 | — | −38.5 | — |
| Fri Aug 149:24PM | −38.5 | 60.5 | −38.5 | 60.5 |
| Sun Aug 239:05AM | −38.5 | 59.5 | −38.5 | 60.5 |
| Wed Aug 267:05AM | −38.5 | 60.5 | −38.5 | 60.5 |
| Thu Aug 277:05AM | −38.5 | 60.5 | −38.5 | 61.5 |
| Thu Aug 2712:05PM | −39.5 | 60.5 | −38.5 | 61.5 |
| Thu Aug 275:05PM | −38.5 | 60.5 | −38.5 | 61.5 |
| Thu Aug 276:05PM | −38.5 | 61.5 | −38.5 | 61.5 |
| Fri Aug 2812:05PM | −38.5 | 61.5 | −38.5 | 61.5 |
First pull, latest pull, and every pull where DraftKings or FanDuel moved — unchanged pulls are not repeated. Times ET; a snapshot cadence, not a live price.
The line hasn't moved since the first capture.
The rosters
what the early-season model weighsSJSUUSC2025 season2–9 · −12.19–4 · +13.9
Roster talent459115th92211th
Portal net stars+246th−39126th
Recruiting class159127th3111st
Roster talent is weighted trailing recruiting classes until this year's talent composite publishes. Portal counts moves through Aug 15. Ranks are FBS-wide.
Prediction by cfb_best at code revision 7ebdce4, run Aug 28, 12:05 PM EDT on 9,503 training games. Once a game kicks off the numbers freeze and grade as-is.