Week 0 report · Sat, Aug 29 · 2026 Week 1in trend: High totals go under
San José State
3–3 · Ours #115 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
26–42FinalWe had SJSU 15 – USC 43
AP #14USC
6–1 · Ours #12 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.USC 95%USC won
USC 95%USC wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at USC −38.5.USC −38.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −27.3 · SJSU covered by 22.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.9.60.5final 68 · over by 7.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SJSU +38.5Wmatched the close
SJSU +38.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Luke Weaver21/32 · 234 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5285th pct
- Comp %
- 65.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Jayden Maiava25/29 · 286 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4379th pct
- Comp %
- 86.2
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q4 by Jonas Williams
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| San José Stateoffense | Played like USC +35.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUSC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29th | 35.7%▼1.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.7%▲3.6 | 71st |
| 10th | −0.29▼0.18 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.29▲0.42 | 91st |
| 61st | +0.18▲0.24 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.18▲0.05 | 39th |
| 1st | −0.70▼0.58 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.70▲0.72 | 99th |
| 79th | 0▲1.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
| USCoffense | defenseSan José State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98th | 67.9%▲18.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 67.9%▼32.1 | 2nd |
| 83rd | +0.32▲0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.39 | 17th |
| 81st | +0.41▼0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.56 | 19th |
| 79th | +0.25▲0.26 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.25▼0.26 | 21st |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| San José StateSJSU | USCUSC | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2743rd | Own 3482nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.2 pts50th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 286th | 5648th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −17.913th | +17.988th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 371st | 05th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.7 pts14th | −0.2 pts36th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. SJSU +1.9: turnovers +2.6, field position −2.5, kicking +0.2, 4th downs −0.7, penalty first downs +2.3. | +1.961st | −1.939th |
Season so far
San José State3–3 · 109th-hardest schedule
Lat USC26–42covered +38.5
at USC26–42covered +38.5W
at Eastern Michigan27–21covered +1.5
at Eastern Michigan27–21covered +1.5Wvs Cal Poly30–20missed −21.5
L
vs Fresno State10–26missed +4.5
vs Fresno State10–26missed +4.5W
at Hawai'i20–16covered +3
at Hawai'i20–16covered +3L
vs Wyoming13–16missed −4
vs Wyoming13–16missed −4USC6–1 · 68th-hardest schedule
Wvs San José State42–26missed −38.5
vs San José State42–26missed −38.5Wvs Fresno State39–0covered −21.5
vs Fresno State39–0covered −21.5W
vs Louisiana49–30missed −31
vs Louisiana49–30missed −31W
at Rutgers42–35missed −21
at Rutgers42–35missed −21L
vs Oregon27–41missed +3.5
vs Oregon27–41missed +3.5W
vs Washington25–21missed −7.5
vs Washington25–21missed −7.5W
at Penn State31–23covered −1
at Penn State31–23covered −1Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Aug 29, 2:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is