Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Air Force
4–1 · Ours #105 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
36–33FinalWe had AF 24 – NEV 26
Nevada
2–3 · Ours #104 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.NEV 55%AF won
NEV 55%AF wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at AF −4.5.AF −5.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +1.9 · NEV covered by 2.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.0.50.5final 69 · over by 18.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Liam Szarka5/13 · 92 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2867th pct
- Comp %
- 38.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Carter Jones18/30 · 224 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1030th pct
- Comp %
- 60.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Air Forceoffense | Played evenFitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNevada | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48th | 41.1%▼9.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.1%▼7.4 | 53rd |
| 70th | +0.20▲0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.27 | 30th |
| 71st | +0.28▲0.90 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.28▼0.30 | 29th |
| 70th | +0.18▲0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.32 | 30th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| Nevadaoffense | defenseAir Force | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56th | 43.3%▼0.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.3%▼5.1 | 44th |
| 64th | +0.16▲0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.16 | 36th |
| 34th | −0.12▲0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.18 | 67th |
| 95th | +0.52▲0.30 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.52▼0.58 | 5th |
| 79th | 0▲1.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Air ForceAF | NevadaNEV | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3893rd | Own 3377th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.5 pts86th | +1.2 pts78th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7389th | 6059th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +3.660th | −3.641st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.2 pts96th | −0.1 pts37th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. NEV +0.3: turnovers +2.6, field position −1.9, kicking −0.3, 4th downs −1.7, penalty first downs +1.5. | −0.348th | +0.352nd |
Season so far
Air Force4–1 · 126th-hardest schedule
Wvs Duquesne34–0covered −31.5
L
vs North Dakota State32–38missed +2
vs North Dakota State32–38missed +2Wat Nevada36–33missed −5.5
at Nevada36–33missed −5.5W
vs Navy14–9covered −3
vs Navy14–9covered −3W
at Northern Illinois28–7covered −7
at Northern Illinois28–7covered −7Nevada2–3 · 138th-hardest schedule
W
vs Western Kentucky49–14covered PK
vs Western Kentucky49–14covered PKLvs Montana State7–20missed +4.5QB change mid-game
L
at Middle Tennessee20–27missed −3.5
at Middle Tennessee20–27missed −3.5Lvs Air Force33–36covered +5.5
vs Air Force33–36covered +5.5W
at UTEP30–13covered −10
at UTEP30–13covered −10Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is