Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
UNLV
4–2 · Ours #75 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
38–10FinalWe had UNLV 32 – AKR 19
Akron
1–5 · Ours #134 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UNLV 79%UNLV won
UNLV 79%UNLV wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UNLV −14.UNLV −13.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −13.2 · UNLV covered by 14.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.5.53final 48 · under by 5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Jackson Arnold17/29 · 290 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6290th pct
- Comp %
- 58.6
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Brayden Roggow14/25 · 194 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2716th pct
- Comp %
- 56.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UNLVoffense | Played like UNLV +17.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseAkron | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74th | 49.1%▲14.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 49.1%▼3.1 | 26th |
| 85th | +0.35▲0.43 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.35▼0.17 | 15th |
| 91st | +0.62▲0.80 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.62▼0.53 | 9th |
| 50th | +0.04▲0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.04▲0.10 | 50th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
| Akronoffense | defenseUNLV | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51st | 41.8%▲4.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.8%▼3.3 | 49th |
| 36th | −0.05▲0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.05▼0.01 | 65th |
| 24th | −0.23▼0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.23▲0.21 | 76th |
| 64th | +0.14▲0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.24 | 36th |
| 5th | 3▼2.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲1.6 | 95th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UNLVUNLV | AkronAKR | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2849th | Own 203rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.8 pts68th | −1.4 pts17th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5546th | 5546th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +11.579th | −11.521st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 371st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | −0.7 pts14th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 042nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UNLV +16.3: turnovers +7.8, field position +3.0, kicking +1.5, 4th downs +1.3, penalty first downs −1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | +16.398th | −16.32nd |
Season so far
UNLV4–2 · 108th-hardest schedule
L
vs Memphis21–27missed −5
vs Memphis21–27missed −5W
at Hawai'i21–6covered −2.5
at Hawai'i21–6covered −2.5L
at North Texas6–44missed −3
at North Texas6–44missed −3Wat Akron38–10covered −13.5
at Akron38–10covered −13.5W
vs California39–31covered −1
vs California39–31covered −1W
vs North Dakota State13–7covered +2.5
vs North Dakota State13–7covered +2.5Akron1–5 · 94th-hardest schedule
L
at Wake Forest16–38covered +27.5
at Wake Forest16–38covered +27.5Wvs Robert Morris45–10covered −26.5
L
at Minnesota7–41missed +23QB change mid-game
at Minnesota7–41missed +23QB change mid-gameLvs UNLV10–38missed +13.5
vs UNLV10–38missed +13.5L
at Central Michigan17–41missed +7
at Central Michigan17–41missed +7L
vs Eastern Michigan23–25covered +5.5
vs Eastern Michigan23–25covered +5.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is