Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
UTEP
1–5 · Ours #132 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
7–61FinalWe had UTEP 12 – UNM 39
New Mexico
4–1 · Ours #31 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UNM 95%UNM won
UNM 95%UNM wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UNM −21.UNM −23.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −27.1 · UNM covered by 30.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.3.48final 68 · over by 20
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UNM −22.5Wbeat the close by 1.0
UNM −22.5Wbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
EJ Colson Jr.6/12 · 45 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.652nd pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Relieved in Q3 by Raymond Moore III
Toa Fa'avae15/20 · 249 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5888th pct
- Comp %
- 75.0
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UTEPoffense | Played like UNM +49.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNew Mexico | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15th | 30.0%▼0.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 30.0%▲0.9 | 85th |
| 1st | −0.66▼0.50 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.66▲0.44 | 99th |
| 1st | −1.05▼0.90 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −1.05▲0.85 | 99th |
| 14th | −0.26▼0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.26▲0.05 | 86th |
| 0th | 5▼4.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 5▲3.0 | 100th |
| New Mexicooffense | defenseUTEP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94th | 60.6%▲20.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 60.6%▼7.8 | 6th |
| 80th | +0.29▲0.23 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.06 | 21st |
| 92nd | +0.64▲0.58 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.64▼0.29 | 8th |
| 50th | +0.04▼0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.04▲0.10 | 50th |
| 41st | 1▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UTEPUTEP | New MexicoUNM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2632nd | Own 3791st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +0.3 pts51st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 308th | 3312th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −18.412th | +18.488th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 122nd | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.1 pts61st | 0.0 pts41st |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 042nd | 3100th |
| SafetiesSafeties scored. | 049th | 199th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UNM +32.2: turnovers +10.4, field position +4.0, kicking +0.2, 4th downs −0.2, penalty first downs +2.3, return touchdowns +12.5, safeties +2.9. | −32.21st | +32.2100th |
Season so far
UTEP1–5 · 26th-hardest schedule
L
at Oklahoma0–51missed +41
at Oklahoma0–51missed +41Wvs Texas Southern51–10covered −27
L
at Michigan17–52missed +34.5
at Michigan17–52missed +34.5L
vs Oregon State7–33missed +11
vs Oregon State7–33missed +11Lat New Mexico7–61missed +23.5
at New Mexico7–61missed +23.5L
vs Nevada13–30missed +10
vs Nevada13–30missed +10New Mexico4–1 · 133rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Central Michigan38–7covered −11QB change mid-game
vs Central Michigan38–7covered −11QB change mid-gameWvs Mercyhurst70–7covered −42.5
Lat Oklahoma6–14covered +21
at Oklahoma6–14covered +21W
at New Mexico State42–18covered −11.5
at New Mexico State42–18covered −11.5Wvs UTEP61–7covered −23.5
vs UTEP61–7covered −23.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is