Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Wyoming
3–3 · Ours #126 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
0–28FinalWe had WYO 13 – NDSU 32
North Dakota State
5–1 · Ours #48 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.NDSU 87%NDSU won
NDSU 87%NDSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NDSU −20.NDSU −17oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −18.6 · NDSU covered by 11
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 44.5.44final 28 · under by 16
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.NDSU −18.5Wlost 1.5 to the close
NDSU −18.5Wlost 1.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Tyler Hughes5/14 · 52 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −1.001st pct
- Comp %
- 35.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Nathan Hayes14/25 · 187 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0237th pct
- Comp %
- 56.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Wyomingoffense | Played like NDSU +37.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNorth Dakota State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10th | 27.0%▼17.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 27.0%▲12.2 | 90th |
| 2nd | −0.58▼0.61 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.58▲0.48 | 99th |
| 0th | −1.34▼1.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −1.34▲1.24 | 100th |
| 23rd | −0.16▼0.33 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.07 | 77th |
| 41st | 1▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
| North Dakota Stateoffense | defenseWyoming | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82nd | 52.4%▲15.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.4%▼5.1 | 18th |
| 58th | +0.11▲0.15 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.11▼0.04 | 42nd |
| 46th | +0.02▼0.06 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.02▼0.02 | 54th |
| 69th | +0.17▲0.29 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.02 | 32nd |
| 79th | 0▲1.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.3 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| WyomingWYO | North Dakota StateNDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2957th | Own 2637th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +1.1 pts77th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 3717th | 6367th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −27.05th | +27.095th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 248th | 122nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.8 pts11th | −0.6 pts18th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 042nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. NDSU +3.4: field position −1.0, kicking +0.8, 4th downs +0.3, penalty first downs −0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | −3.433rd | +3.467th |
Season so far
Wyoming3–3 · 135th-hardest schedule
L
at Colorado State13–35missed +3
at Colorado State13–35missed +3Wvs Northern Colorado21–13missed −23
L
at Central Michigan10–24missed −1
at Central Michigan10–24missed −1W
vs Hawai'i27–10covered +2
vs Hawai'i27–10covered +2Lat North Dakota State0–28missed +17
at North Dakota State0–28missed +17W
at San José State16–13covered +4
at San José State16–13covered +4North Dakota State5–1 · 130th-hardest schedule
W
vs Jacksonville State33–7covered −6.5
vs Jacksonville State33–7covered −6.5Wvs Fordham38–0missed −41.5
W
at Air Force38–32covered −2
at Air Force38–32covered −2W
at Sacramento State31–10missed −25
at Sacramento State31–10missed −25Wvs Wyoming28–0covered −17
vs Wyoming28–0covered −17L
at UNLV7–13missed −2.5
at UNLV7–13missed −2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is