Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

North Dakota State

5–1 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
+4.7
Rank
46
Résumé
41
Projected wins
9.5▲ 3.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29Jacksonville StateJXSTNDSU −0.9NDSU −7.0W 33–775JXST · L
Sat, Sep 59/5FordhamFordhamNDSU −28.9NDSU −41.5W 38–086
Sat, Sep 129/12at Air ForceAFNDSU −11.3NDSU −5.5W 38–3236NDSU · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at Sacramento StateSACNDSU −9.1NDSU −27.5W 31–1058SAC · W
Sat, Oct 310/3WyomingWYONDSU −18.6NDSU −18.5W 28–078NDSU · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at UNLVUNLVNDSU −6.5NDSU −3.5L 7–1348NDSU · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17NevadaNEVNDSU −12.3NDSU −14.5NEV +14.5Pass
Sat, Oct 3110/31UTEPUTEPNDSU −23.9—wk 9
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Hawai'iHAWNDSU −14.0—wk 11

Model on NDSU games: 3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 1–1 · home 2–0, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +7.3 · closer than the market 1 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
9.55–1 banked, 6 to play · preseason 6.3
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins56%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 4.5 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0389th
Success rate41.7%88th
Pass EPA+0.1163rd
Rush EPA−0.03106th
Explosive rate14.9%30th
Quality-drive rate58.6%30th
Points per quality drive3.6101st
Defense
EPA allowed−0.175th
Success allowed37.5%35th
Pass EPA allowed−0.333rd
Rush EPA allowed−0.0731st
Explosive allowed10.2%41st
Havoc rate11.7%26th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+4.35th
Turnover margin+619th · exp. +6.0
Field position margin+0.3 yd71st
Hidden points / game+1.9banked
Luck, wins+0.14.9 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 5–1
Rush rate over expected+5.5%20th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+4.746th
Schedule played−8.2130th
Schedule remaining−9.8126th
Full schedule−9.0134th
Pregame expected wins3.1of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 1Wk 3Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 46th · +4.7Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateWyomingSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUNDSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
North Dakota Stateoff +0.03 89thdef −0.17 allowed · 5th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.