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Oct 13, 12:07 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 13, 7:43 AM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Wyoming

3–3 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
−11.7
Rank
122
Résumé
113
Projected wins
5.3▲ 0.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at Colorado StateCSUWYO +4.1WYO +3.5L 13–3532CSU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12Northern ColoradoNorthern ColoradoWYO −31.1WYO −23.0W 21–1365
Sat, Sep 199/19at Central MichiganCMUWYO +4.6WYO +1.5L 10–2432CMU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26Hawai'iHAWWYO +9.7WYO +5.5W 27–1071HAW · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at North Dakota StateNDSUWYO +18.6WYO +18.5L 0–2822NDSU · W
Fri, Oct 910/9at San José StateSJSUWYO +5.8WYO +7.0W 16–1351WYO · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17Northern IllinoisNIUWYO −7.7WYO −8.0NIU +7.5Pass
Fri, Oct 2310/23Air ForceAFWYO +7.3—wk 8
Sat, Nov 711/7at UNLVUNLVWYO +10.6—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at UTEPUTEPWYO −4.5—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21New MexicoUNMWYO +20.5—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28UConnCONNWYO +8.1—wk 13

Model on WYO games: 4–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–1 · as the dog 1–0 · home 3–0, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +3.6 · closer than the market 3 of 5

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.33–3 banked, 6 to play · preseason 5.0
Bowl (6+)15%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 6 games left add 2.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game9%
Win conference2%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

6 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.03117th
Success rate42.0%83rd
Pass EPA−0.22133rd
Rush EPA+0.1152nd
Explosive rate13.4%55th
Quality-drive rate50.8%77th
Points per quality drive2.8128th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0469th
Success allowed46.5%124th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0348th
Rush EPA allowed+0.10101st
Explosive allowed11.0%51st
Havoc rate8.0%97th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.370th
Turnover margin−5119th · exp. −8.0
Field position margin+5.8 yd19th
Hidden points / game−3.1gave up
Luck, wins+0.42.6 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 1–5
Rush rate over expected+7.6%15th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−11.7122nd
Schedule played−9.0135th
Schedule remaining−5.191st
Full schedule−6.8122nd
Pregame expected wins1.0of 6

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Wk 6
Ours 122nd · −11.7Week 6
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUNLVMemphisTCUNorth CarolinaUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABFresno StatePurdueGeorgia StateOklahomaUTEPMichigan StateToledoMiamiKansasTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechMichiganWestern MichiganTroySam HoustonFloridaFlorida AtlanticColorado StateSouthern MissAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateCharlotteOregonBoise StateNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateArkansasIowaNorthern IllinoisOld DominionIowa StateLouisianaBYUAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAKentuckyCincinnatiBoston CollegeArmySouth CarolinaKent StateOhio StateBall StateWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyNebraskaOhioPittsburghMiami (OH)SyracuseWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUWYOgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Wyomingoff −0.03 117thdef +0.04 allowed · 69th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.